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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of FBS contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game were factored into the system. This resulted in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and allowed more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC13-01199.2
2Ohio StateB1G11-1898.0
3MichiganB1G10-22496.8
4ClemsonACC12-11595.1
5Penn StateB1G11-21293.2
6WisconsinB1G10-31792.2
7Florida StateACC9-32692.0
8WashingtonP1212-13391.8
9Southern CaliforniaP129-3690.6
10Western MichiganMAC13-012289.3
11ColoradoP1210-3788.4
12AuburnSEC8-42887.4
13OklahomaB1210-24987.2
14StanfordP129-32986.0
15West VirginiaB1210-27385.9
16Boise State MW10-27184.8
17Louisiana StateSEC7-42282.0
18Georgia TechACC8-43481.4
19Texas A&MSEC8-44181.4
20IowaB1G8-45480.9
21Washington StateP128-43180.4
22UtahP128-44580.3
23PittsburghACC8-44079.8
24South FloridaAAC10-28978.5
25HoustonAAC9-38378.4
26TennesseeSEC8-42177.4
27MinnesotaB1G8-44677.4
28Western KentuckyUSA10-311076.6
29LouisvilleACC9-36575.9
30TempleAAC10-38875.3
31Virginia TechACC9-45674.2
32GeorgiaSEC7-53574.2
33Miami (Florida)ACC8-44473.7
34Oklahoma StateB129-36673.1
35NavyAAC9-36872.6
36Air Force MW9-39972.5
37Brigham YoungInd8-47472.1
38Appalachian StateSBC9-310170.9
39NebraskaB1G9-32370.0
40TulsaAAC9-38469.7
41TroySBC9-311467.7
42North CarolinaACC8-45565.8
43MemphisAAC8-47765.7
44San Diego State MW10-311764.0
45NorthwesternB1G6-63263.5
46Kansas StateB128-45862.2
47FloridaSEC8-41062.1
48KentuckySEC7-54262.1
49North Carolina StateACC6-65060.6
50Colorado State MW7-55760.4
51ToledoMAC9-310260.2
52VanderbiltSEC6-61459.2
53Wyoming MW8-57257.4
54IndianaB1G6-65257.2
55MississippiSEC5-7357.2
56MarylandB1G6-63854.5
57ArkansasSEC7-53753.5
58CaliforniaP125-7952.6
59Old DominionUSA9-312652.4
60New Mexico MW8-411152.4
61Texas ChristianB126-66950.6
62BaylorB126-68149.9
63UCLAP124-8149.7
64Boston CollegeACC6-66349.1
65Mississippi StateSEC5-72748.4
66Louisiana TechUSA8-512347.4
67Central FloridaAAC6-67047.2
68OregonP124-8546.9
69TexasB125-76245.8
70IdahoSBC8-49743.8
71South CarolinaSEC6-64843.5
72Arizona StateP125-71842.9
73Eastern MichiganMAC7-510042.5
74Arkansas StateSBC7-511641.5
75Middle Tennessee StateUSA8-412740.9
76MissouriSEC4-82540.7
77Notre DameInd4-84740.5
78Wake ForestACC6-66440.2
79ArizonaP123-91339.9
80Oregon StateP124-8239.8
81Miami (Ohio)MAC6-611939.0
82OhioMAC8-511238.7
83ArmyInd6-512137.2
84Northern IllinoisMAC5-78737.2
85Michigan StateB1G3-91935.7
86Southern MethodistAAC5-76134.5
87Texas TechB125-76033.9
88Georgia SouthernSBC5-78633.7
89Iowa StateB123-95932.2
90Central MichiganMAC6-69431.5
91Texas - San AntonioUSA6-610530.3
92South AlabamaSBC6-612430.0
93TulaneAAC4-87629.2
94Utah State MW3-94328.1
95Louisiana - LafayetteSBC6-610426.8
96SyracuseACC4-82026.4
97IllinoisB1G3-91626.2
98Southern MississippiUSA6-610726.1
99DukeACC4-83025.7
100Hawai'i MW6-79124.2
101CincinnatiAAC4-86723.4
102RutgersB1G2-10422.2
103VirginiaACC2-105320.4
104Kent StateMAC3-99320.2
105Ball StateMAC4-810819.1
106UNLV MW4-89518.9
107San Jose State MW4-87818.9
108ConnecticutAAC3-97918.5
109AkronMAC5-79816.2
110PurdueB1G3-93915.6
111East CarolinaAAC3-95113.8
112CharlotteUSA4-811813.6
113North TexasUSA5-711513.1
114New Mexico StateSBC3-97512.7
115Bowling GreenMAC4-89212.1
116KansasB122-103611.3
117Nevada MW5-712510.4
118Georgia StateSBC3-9859.8
119Florida InternationalUSA4-81099.5
120Louisiana - MonroeSBC4-8829.4
121Texas - El PasoUSA4-81288.3
122Florida AtlanticUSA3-91207.0
123BuffaloMAC2-101136.0
124Fresno State MW1-11905.3
125MarshallUSA3-91064.6
126MassachusettsInd2-10803.3
127RiceUSA3-91033.0
128Texas StateSBC2-10962.1

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two FBS college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 128 FBS teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Sections ranking each team's strength of schedule and strength of accomplishment are also included in the rankings. Strength of accomplishment provides a formula that could conceivably be used to evaluate teams for inclusion in a playoff system.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2016. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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