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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC12-1598.2
2OregonP1212-14596.0
3Ohio StateB1012-12495.6
4Mississippi StateSEC10-22294.3
5MississippiSEC9-3393.8
6GeorgiaSEC9-32893.3
7Michigan StateB1010-25993.0
8Texas ChristianB1211-15892.7
9Louisiana StateSEC8-4989.5
10AuburnSEC8-4189.3
11Florida StateACC13-01688.7
12BaylorB1211-16487.9
13Georgia TechACC10-31087.2
14OklahomaB128-43986.8
15Boise State MW11-26686.3
16UCLAP129-3486.1
17Kansas StateB129-33384.5
18ClemsonACC9-32384.4
19LouisvilleACC9-34184.0
20Arizona StateP129-35082.4
21WisconsinB1010-35182.3
22Southern CaliforniaP128-41282.1
23ArkansasSEC6-6282.1
24MissouriSEC10-33581.9
25MarshallUSA12-111580.8
26NebraskaB109-35579.8
27UtahP128-43179.3
28Miami (Florida)ACC6-61875.0
29StanfordP127-52774.9
30Louisiana TechUSA8-56973.7
31MinnesotaB108-44372.7
32Colorado State MW10-28172.4
33ArizonaP1210-31772.3
34Brigham YoungInd8-47371.6
35MemphisAAC9-39571.4
36Boston CollegeACC7-55271.3
37North Carolina StateACC7-55668.3
38FloridaSEC6-52968.2
39Air Force MW9-310267.9
40Texas A&MSEC7-5666.6
41Notre DameInd7-51165.1
42Utah State MW9-48664.1
43WashingtonP128-56862.5
44IowaB107-57162.4
45Virginia TechACC6-64861.9
46Northern IllinoisMAC11-211461.4
47West VirginiaB127-53660.5
48TennesseeSEC6-6759.8
49Central FloridaAAC9-310059.3
50DukeACC9-37657.6
51Nevada MW7-58257.4
52CincinnatiAAC9-38557.3
53Penn StateB106-66057.0
54East CarolinaAAC8-410456.7
55North CarolinaACC6-61956.6
56South CarolinaSEC6-62556.2
57Georgia Southern SB9-312154.1
58MarylandB107-54053.8
59MichiganB105-72153.2
60RutgersB107-54653.1
61TexasB126-61552.2
62VirginiaACC5-71351.8
63PittsburghACC6-66151.2
64Western KentuckyUSA7-58751.0
65San Diego State MW7-510548.9
66RiceUSA7-59348.7
67Oklahoma StateB126-63047.2
68NavyInd6-57247.0
69ToledoMAC8-411646.5
70Louisiana - Lafayette SB8-49646.3
71KentuckySEC5-72045.4
72Alabama - BirminghamUSA6-68344.8
73Arkansas State SB7-511344.1
74NorthwesternB105-75344.0
75IllinoisB106-63443.6
76Texas - El PasoUSA7-59043.3
77CaliforniaP125-73742.7
78HoustonAAC7-510942.4
79Western MichiganMAC8-411941.5
80Oregon StateP125-75741.5
81IndianaB104-85439.9
82Central MichiganMAC7-512338.6
83Texas TechB124-83238.4
84TempleAAC6-610135.1
85Appalachian State SB7-512634.6
86Middle Tennessee StateUSA6-67534.5
87Texas State SB7-512732.3
88SyracuseACC3-93832.0
89OhioMAC6-611831.8
90Old DominionUSA6-69430.5
91Iowa StateB122-104229.3
92ColoradoP122-101428.4
93PurdueB103-94926.5
94Bowling GreenMAC7-610726.0
95Fresno State MW6-76525.6
96KansasB123-92625.3
97Washington StateP123-9824.9
98South Alabama SB6-610624.4
99New Mexico MW4-87824.3
100Wake ForestACC3-94423.1
101AkronMAC5-712521.8
102Wyoming MW4-86221.1
103South FloridaAAC4-88421.1
104Florida InternationalUSA4-810821.1
105VanderbiltSEC3-94721.1
106Florida AtlanticUSA3-97919.3
107ArmyInd4-812018.8
108Louisiana - Monroe SB4-88818.5
109Texas - San AntonioUSA4-88917.5
110BuffaloMAC5-612817.4
111TulaneAAC3-97415.4
112Hawai'i MW4-99813.9
113Ball StateMAC5-712413.7
114San Jose State MW3-97013.5
115North TexasUSA4-811113.4
116Miami (Ohio)MAC2-1010313.1
117Troy SB3-911012.3
118Southern MississippiUSA3-96311.6
119Kent StateMAC2-9998.4
120TulsaAAC2-10807.9
121ConnecticutAAC2-10916.9
122MassachusettsMAC3-91226.6
123Nevada - Las Vegas MW2-11775.8
124Southern MethodistAAC1-11674.0
125Idaho SB1-101123.8
126New Mexico State SB2-101173.3
127Georgia State SB1-11922.4
128Eastern MichiganMAC2-10972.2

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2014. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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