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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1Florida StateACC14-05798.4
2OregonP1211-24195.2
3StanfordP1211-3894.6
4South CarolinaSEC11-21594.4
5AlabamaSEC11-23094.1
6MissouriSEC12-21693.7
7AuburnSEC12-2793.1
8BaylorB1211-26092.9
9OklahomaB1211-22991.8
10ClemsonACC11-25490.3
11Oklahoma StateB1210-34089.7
12Michigan StateB1013-16688.3
13Ohio StateB1012-26987.2
14UCLAP1210-31287.2
15WashingtonP129-42886.8
16Louisiana StateSEC10-33486.7
17LouisvilleAAC12-111586.4
18Central FloridaAAC12-18085.8
19Arizona StateP1210-4584.1
20WisconsinB109-45282.3
21MississippiSEC8-51482.3
22Texas A&MSEC9-42080.3
23Kansas StateB128-56478.7
24Mississippi StateSEC7-6976.8
25Notre DameInd9-42376.7
26GeorgiaSEC8-5175.9
27Southern CaliforniaP1210-42775.3
28Miami (Florida)ACC9-43774.1
29ArizonaP128-53973.3
30East CarolinaUSA10-311071.1
31Utah State MW9-58670.9
32Brigham YoungInd8-53270.8
33North CarolinaACC7-63570.7
34Virginia TechACC8-51869.8
35VanderbiltSEC9-45167.7
36PittsburghACC7-62167.4
37NavyInd9-48166.2
38DukeACC10-44466.0
39NebraskaB109-47465.9
40MichiganB107-63665.8
41Boise State MW8-57665.7
42Georgia TechACC7-62565.7
43Fresno State MW11-211165.1
44IowaB108-54864.9
45Penn StateB107-55664.0
46Western Kentucky SB8-410763.1
47North TexasUSA9-412061.4
48Oregon StateP127-63361.1
49Texas TechB128-54960.6
50HoustonAAC8-57060.4
51UtahP125-7360.1
52TexasB128-51959.5
53MarshallUSA10-411859.0
54Northern IllinoisMAC12-212258.8
55Louisiana - Lafayette SB9-410358.6
56MinnesotaB108-56357.9
57San Diego State MW8-510857.7
58Bowling GreenMAC10-411956.4
59SyracuseACC7-64356.4
60TennesseeSEC5-7255.7
61RiceUSA10-49454.5
62ToledoMAC7-59552.9
63CincinnatiAAC9-412152.5
64FloridaSEC4-8652.3
65Arkansas State SB8-57552.1
66Boston CollegeACC7-64550.7
67Ball StateMAC10-312449.3
68Texas - San AntonioUSA7-58446.0
69South Alabama SB6-69245.3
70Florida AtlanticUSA6-68745.1
71Washington StateP126-71043.6
72IndianaB105-72643.5
73MarylandACC7-67143.4
74TulaneUSA7-69642.1
75NorthwesternB105-75841.0
76Troy SB6-66540.5
77Colorado State MW8-611440.0
78Middle Tennessee StateUSA8-59938.9
79San Jose State MW6-67338.0
80Texas ChristianB124-83137.9
81BuffaloMAC8-510937.2
82Texas State SB6-611636.1
83Louisiana - Monroe SB6-65935.9
84ArkansasSEC3-91334.4
85Wake ForestACC4-84233.1
86RutgersAAC6-77732.8
87OhioMAC7-611329.6
88Nevada - Las Vegas MW7-69829.3
89Iowa StateB123-93828.8
90Nevada MW4-85028.2
91VirginiaACC2-101728.2
92Southern MethodistAAC5-78327.0
93ConnecticutAAC3-99026.6
94ColoradoP124-82426.5
95Old DominionInd8-412625.4
96North Carolina StateACC3-96125.1
97West VirginiaB124-84624.9
98MemphisAAC3-97823.4
99KentuckySEC2-101123.1
100IllinoisB104-85522.4
101Kent StateMAC4-89319.8
102South FloridaAAC2-105319.4
103AkronMAC5-78819.1
104KansasB123-94718.9
105TulsaUSA3-96718.8
106Wyoming MW4-810418.7
107New Mexico MW3-98518.1
108TempleAAC2-108916.0
109Central MichiganMAC6-612315.2
110ArmyInd3-911215.1
111CaliforniaP121-11415.0
112Hawai'i MW2-106814.7
113Air Force MW2-109112.6
114Louisiana TechUSA4-812510.9
115Alabama - BirminghamUSA2-10729.6
116PurdueB101-11229.3
117New Mexico StateInd2-10828.0
118IdahoInd1-11627.9
119Georgia State SB0-121026.4
120Texas - El PasoUSA2-101056.2
121Western MichiganMAC1-111004.4
122MassachusettsMAC1-11974.2
123Eastern MichiganMAC2-101062.6
124Florida InternationalUSA1-111012.0
125Southern MississippiUSA1-11791.5
126Miami (Ohio)MAC0-121171.0

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2014. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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