Solecismic Software
HOME  ·  FRONT OFFICE FOOTBALL  ·  THE COLLEGE YEARS  ·  SUPPORT  ·  DOWNLOADS  ·  FOOTBALL FRONTIER

 

 

Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC14-1198.3
2Ohio StateB1012-14797.0
3ClemsonACC14-12896.7
4OklahomaB1211-22095.8
5StanfordP1212-22395.0
6Louisiana StateSEC9-3993.6
7HoustonAAC13-19493.3
8MichiganB1010-32991.7
9MississippiSEC10-31790.9
10NavyAAC11-27888.8
11UtahP1210-33987.2
12TennesseeSEC9-42687.2
13Texas ChristianB1211-24987.1
14ArkansasSEC8-5485.9
15Florida StateACC10-35985.8
16GeorgiaSEC10-35684.2
17IowaB1012-25483.9
18BaylorB1210-36583.7
19Michigan StateB1012-21183.3
20ToledoMAC10-28883.1
21Notre DameInd10-31581.2
22Mississippi StateSEC9-41981.0
23West VirginiaB128-54479.7
24OregonP129-42279.5
25NorthwesternB1010-33578.7
26WisconsinB1010-36778.6
27Appalachian StateSBC11-212676.6
28LouisvilleACC8-54176.0
29North CarolinaACC11-37174.5
30Western KentuckyUSA12-29773.2
31MemphisAAC9-45272.9
32AuburnSEC7-6872.7
33FloridaSEC10-41271.5
34Bowling GreenMAC10-47771.3
35Boise State MW9-410971.2
36WashingtonP127-63071.0
37Brigham YoungInd9-46170.7
38Oklahoma StateB1210-35069.2
39Georgia SouthernSBC9-410467.8
40San Diego State MW11-311867.7
41PittsburghACC8-54067.2
42Southern CaliforniaP128-6367.0
43CaliforniaP128-51066.8
44TempleAAC10-48066.3
45Washington StateP129-45866.3
46Texas A&MSEC8-52165.3
47UCLAP128-53264.8
48South FloridaAAC8-57263.9
49NebraskaB106-74563.5
50Western MichiganMAC8-56361.6
51North Carolina StateACC7-66660.8
52Penn StateB107-62458.9
53MarshallUSA10-312858.7
54Arizona StateP126-72756.9
55Louisiana TechUSA9-411556.2
56Virginia TechACC7-67955.6
57Texas TechB127-62555.4
58MinnesotaB106-71853.8
59TexasB125-71353.0
60MissouriSEC5-73152.8
61ArizonaP127-65352.3
62OhioMAC8-510151.9
63IndianaB106-76251.2
64Miami (Florida)ACC8-55150.6
65Southern MississippiUSA9-510649.0
66AkronMAC8-511148.3
67Air Force MW8-68448.2
68Arkansas StateSBC9-411248.0
69Central MichiganMAC7-68947.9
70Northern IlllinoisMAC8-68545.1
71Kansas StateB126-74843.7
72IllinoisB105-73643.3
73VanderbiltSEC4-8743.0
74South CarolinaSEC3-91441.8
75KentuckySEC5-75741.7
76CincinnatiAAC7-66441.6
77DukeACC8-59141.1
78Middle Tennessee StateUSA7-69540.8
79East CarolinaAAC5-77338.7
80Nevada MW7-612037.6
81Georgia TechACC3-93736.9
82New Mexico MW7-611336.3
83MarylandB103-9236.3
84Boston CollegeACC3-96036.1
85San Jose State MW6-79936.0
86TulsaAAC6-78235.5
87Colorado State MW7-611635.0
88ConnecticutAAC6-77433.8
89Utah State MW6-76833.5
90ColoradoP124-95532.1
91VirginiaACC4-84232.0
92SyracuseACC4-83331.2
93Iowa StateB123-9530.6
94Oregon StateP122-10630.0
95RutgersB104-84627.0
96Georgia StateSBC6-711926.0
97Wake ForestACC3-94326.0
98PurdueB102-101624.2
99Old DominionUSA5-712221.5
100TroySBC4-89320.7
101South AlabamaSBC5-79820.6
102BuffaloMAC5-711020.3
103Florida InternationalUSA5-712318.6
104MassachusettsMAC3-910016.9
105Florida AtlanticUSA3-910816.3
106Southern MethodistAAC2-103816.3
107Nevada - Las Vegas MW3-99015.8
108Kent StateMAC3-98314.6
109RiceUSA5-712114.4
110Hawai'i MW3-108614.3
111Louisiana - LafayetteSBC4-811713.3
112Texas - San AntonioUSA3-911413.1
113Fresno State MW3-97012.7
114Miami (Ohio)MAC3-99612.4
115Ball StateMAC3-96912.3
116KansasB120-123412.1
117Texas - El PasoUSA5-712411.6
118ArmyInd2-1012710.9
119TulaneAAC3-98710.5
120Wyoming MW2-10819.6
121IdahoSBC4-81059.5
122New Mexico StateSBC3-91079.4
123Texas StateSBC3-91035.6
124CharlotteUSA2-101255.1
125North TexasUSA1-11763.8
126Eastern MichiganMAC1-11922.3
127Louisiana - MonroeSBC2-111021.6
128Central FloridaAAC0-12750.8

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 128 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Sections ranking each team's strength of schedule and strength of accomplishment are also included in the rankings. Strength of accomplishment provides a formula that could conceivably be used to evaluate teams for inclusion in a playoff system.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2015. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

Solecismic Software

SOLECISMIC SOFTWARE

FRONT OFFICE FOOTBALL

THE COLLEGE YEARS

FOOTBALL FRONTIER

Frontier Blog

PRO FOOTBALL RATINGS

Schedule

Standings

Teams

Stats - Offense

Stats - Defense

System Performance

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

Schedule

Schedule Strength

Accomplishment

Standings

Conference Ratings

Stats - Offense

Stats - Defense

System Performance

UP AND DOWN THE RIVER

COMPANY INFORMATION