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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of FBS contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game were factored into the system. This resulted in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and allowed more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC0-0499.0
2ClemsonACC0-07298.0
3Louisiana StateSEC0-0798.0
4MichiganB1G0-03896.0
5OklahomaB120-01496.0
6Florida StateACC0-02495.0
7TennesseeSEC0-04692.0
8StanfordP120-02791.0
9HoustonAAC0-08188.0
10GeorgiaSEC0-06187.0
11IowaB1G0-06386.0
12LouisvilleACC0-06285.0
13ArkansasSEC0-01185.0
14MississippiSEC0-0285.0
15Ohio StateB1G0-0384.0
16AuburnSEC0-0684.0
17WashingtonP120-05582.0
18Michigan StateB1G0-02681.0
19Southern CaliforniaP120-0181.0
20North CarolinaACC0-06480.0
21Texas ChristianB120-03380.0
22FloridaSEC0-05480.0
23Oklahoma StateB120-01979.0
24UCLAP120-02079.0
25UtahP120-05279.0
26South FloridaAAC0-07979.0
27PittsburghACC0-04877.0
28BaylorB120-05177.0
29Texas A&MSEC0-02177.0
30ToledoMAC0-09176.0
31Penn StateB1G0-01575.0
32Boise State MW0-011175.0
33TempleAAC0-09673.0
34Miami (Florida)ACC0-06071.0
35TexasB120-02271.0
36West VirginiaB120-02871.0
37Washington StateP120-05671.0
38Appalachian StateSBC0-011271.0
39NorthwesternB1G0-04370.0
40WisconsinB1G0-0569.0
41Virginia TechACC0-06567.0
42Western MichiganMAC0-08967.0
43Brigham YoungInd0-03066.0
44Notre DameInd0-04265.0
45NebraskaB1G0-04964.0
46OregonP120-03562.0
47San Diego State MW0-012361.0
48Northern IllinoisMAC0-08360.0
49Kansas StateB120-0859.0
50Western KentuckyUSA0-011359.0
51Georgia SouthernSBC0-010758.0
52CincinnatiAAC0-07056.0
53IndianaB1G0-04155.0
54Mississippi StateSEC0-03155.0
55Nevada MW0-012055.0
56Central MichiganMAC0-09555.0
57ArizonaP120-03654.0
58TulsaAAC0-08254.0
59Bowling GreenMAC0-08553.0
60Arizona StateP120-03452.0
61MissouriSEC0-03752.0
62Arkansas StateSBC0-012452.0
63MemphisAAC0-05951.0
64Southern MississippiUSA0-012751.0
65ColoradoP120-01750.0
66NavyAAC0-07350.0
67Texas TechB120-02349.0
68MarshallUSA0-09849.0
69RutgersB1G0-02548.0
70ConnecticutAAC0-07546.0
71Air Force MW0-012645.0
72OhioMAC0-09744.0
73Iowa StateB120-0943.0
74Middle Tennessee StateUSA0-012143.0
75Utah State MW0-06943.0
76Boston CollegeACC0-07442.0
77IllinoisB1G0-01342.0
78CaliforniaP120-01042.0
79San Jose State MW0-08442.0
80North Carolina StateACC0-03941.0
81Old DominionUSA0-011638.0
82Louisiana TechUSA0-011538.0
83MinnesotaB1G0-06637.0
84MarylandB1G0-05336.0
85East CarolinaAAC0-06736.0
86VanderbiltSEC0-04035.0
87Kent StateMAC0-07133.0
88KansasB120-01232.0
89AkronMAC0-08032.0
90Georgia StateSBC0-011732.0
91VirginiaACC0-05830.0
92PurdueB1G0-05030.0
93New Mexico MW0-012229.0
94DukeACC0-04528.0
95TulaneAAC0-09228.0
96Wake ForestACC0-06827.0
97UNLV MW0-08627.0
98Florida AtlanticUSA0-010525.0
99Wyoming MW0-08725.0
100BuffaloMAC0-09325.0
101KentuckySEC0-02923.0
102Georgia TechACC0-03222.0
103Southern MethodistAAC0-05722.0
104Colorado State MW0-010222.0
105TroySBC0-010322.0
106South CarolinaSEC0-04421.0
107Florida InternationalUSA0-011420.0
108Texas - El PasoUSA0-012820.0
109ArmyInd0-012520.0
110Central FloridaAAC0-04719.0
111South AlabamaSBC0-010418.0
112CharlotteUSA0-010616.0
113Ball StateMAC0-09416.0
114Louisiana - LafayetteSBC0-010816.0
115SyracuseACC0-01815.0
116Oregon StateP120-01615.0
117Hawai'i MW0-07715.0
118IdahoSBC0-011915.0
119RiceUSA0-010113.0
120Texas - San AntonioUSA0-011813.0
121Fresno State MW0-07811.0
122MassachusettsInd0-010011.0
123Miami (Ohio)MAC0-09010.0
124Eastern MichiganMAC0-0887.0
125New Mexico StateSBC0-01097.0
126Texas StateSBC0-0995.0
127North TexasUSA0-01104.0
128Louisiana - MonroeSBC0-0762.0

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two FBS college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 128 FBS teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Sections ranking each team's strength of schedule and strength of accomplishment are also included in the rankings. Strength of accomplishment provides a formula that could conceivably be used to evaluate teams for inclusion in a playoff system.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2016. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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