Solecismic Software
HOME  ·  FRONT OFFICE FOOTBALL  ·  THE COLLEGE YEARS  ·  SUPPORT  ·  DOWNLOADS  ·  FOOTBALL FRONTIER

 

 

Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1Ohio StateB100-029100.0
2Michigan StateB100-03796.0
3BaylorB120-06495.0
4Texas ChristianB120-05595.0
5UCLAP120-02195.0
6GeorgiaSEC0-03494.0
7AlabamaSEC0-0193.0
8MississippiSEC0-02393.0
9AuburnSEC0-01491.0
10Boise State MW0-08991.0
11Southern CaliforniaP120-0790.0
12Georgia TechACC0-0588.0
13ClemsonACC0-04888.0
14OregonP120-04188.0
15Louisiana StateSEC0-02088.0
16Arizona StateP120-03086.0
17OklahomaB120-03184.0
18MissouriSEC0-05984.0
19Florida StateACC0-05682.0
20StanfordP120-03582.0
21ArkansasSEC0-0282.0
22Virginia TechACC0-03281.0
23WisconsinB100-07781.0
24Texas A&MSEC0-01781.0
25MarshallUSA0-012879.0
26Notre DameInd0-01679.0
27UtahP120-01378.0
28Penn StateB100-05176.0
29TennesseeSEC0-03675.0
30Louisiana TechUSA0-09274.0
31Utah State MW0-06774.0
32North CarolinaACC0-05273.0
33Western KentuckyUSA0-07071.0
34Oklahoma StateB120-06370.0
35FloridaSEC0-02270.0
36ArizonaP120-04369.0
37Miami (Florida)ACC0-0968.0
38LouisvilleACC0-04968.0
39Colorado State MW0-010568.0
40CincinnatiAAC0-09767.0
41Mississippi StateSEC0-0866.0
42Brigham YoungInd0-03866.0
43NebraskaB100-06064.0
44West VirginiaB120-04064.0
45DukeACC0-06263.0
46North Carolina StateACC0-06662.0
47Kansas StateB120-05362.0
48CaliforniaP120-01062.0
49PittsburghACC0-03961.0
50Texas TechB120-02861.0
51San Diego State MW0-09461.0
52Northern IlllinoisMAC0-012360.0
53RutgersB100-06157.0
54MinnesotaB100-04257.0
55MemphisAAC0-010655.0
56IllinoisB100-05454.0
57East CarolinaAAC0-09052.0
58TempleAAC0-09552.0
59VirginiaACC0-0450.0
60TexasB120-0650.0
61Western MichiganMAC0-08350.0
62Middle Tennessee StateUSA0-08149.0
63ToledoMAC0-011349.0
64MichiganB100-02648.0
65Appalachian StateSBC0-012746.0
66HoustonAAC0-011745.0
67Air Force MW0-07545.0
68South CarolinaSEC0-01244.0
69Georgia SouthernSBC0-011444.0
70IowaB100-08243.0
71RiceUSA0-010943.0
72Nevada MW0-010143.0
73IndianaB100-05042.0
74Wake ForestACC0-04440.0
75MarylandB100-02540.0
76NorthwesternB100-05740.0
77Florida InternationalUSA0-07940.0
78Bowling GreenMAC0-011140.0
79Arkansas StateSBC0-010740.0
80Boston CollegeACC0-04539.0
81ColoradoP120-01539.0
82Old DominionUSA0-011839.0
83Oregon StateP120-03338.0
84MassachusettsMAC0-011938.0
85Texas StateSBC0-012437.0
86WashingtonP120-0336.0
87KentuckySEC0-04636.0
88Louisiana - LafayetteSBC0-012635.0
89TulsaAAC0-08534.0
90Central FloridaAAC0-08432.0
91NavyAAC0-011532.0
92TulaneAAC0-010232.0
93Texas - El PasoUSA0-09832.0
94San Jose State MW0-07832.0
95OhioMAC0-012232.0
96Hawai'i MW0-06829.0
97Louisiana - MonroeSBC0-08729.0
98Florida AtlanticUSA0-07228.0
99Central MichiganMAC0-011028.0
100Iowa StateB120-01827.0
101Ball StateMAC0-09926.0
102Washington StateP120-02423.0
103Fresno State MW0-05823.0
104Southern MississippiUSA0-08622.0
105New Mexico MW0-07122.0
106South FloridaAAC0-09621.0
107AkronMAC0-012521.0
108North TexasUSA0-07420.0
109VanderbiltSEC0-01118.0
110Wyoming MW0-08018.0
111SyracuseACC0-04717.0
112PurdueB100-02717.0
113TroySBC0-010016.0
114ArmyInd0-011616.0
115New Mexico StateSBC0-08815.0
116KansasB120-01913.0
117Kent StateMAC0-010813.0
118Georgia StateSBC0-012013.0
119South AlabamaSBC0-010413.0
120ConnecticutAAC0-07612.0
121BuffaloMAC0-012111.0
122IdahoSBC0-09311.0
123Texas - San AntonioUSA0-0699.0
124Nevada - Las Vegas MW0-0659.0
125Miami (Ohio)MAC0-0917.0
126Eastern MichiganMAC0-01036.0
127Southern MethodistAAC0-0735.0
128CharlotteUSA0-01123.0

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2015. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

Solecismic Software

SOLECISMIC SOFTWARE

FRONT OFFICE FOOTBALL

THE COLLEGE YEARS

FOOTBALL FRONTIER

Frontier Blog

PRO FOOTBALL RATINGS

Schedule

Standings

Teams

Stats - Offense

Stats - Defense

System Performance

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

Schedule

Schedule Strength

Standings

Conference Ratings

Stats - Offense

Stats - Defense

System Performance

UP AND DOWN THE RIVER

COMPANY INFORMATION