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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1Florida StateACC0-055100.0
2AlabamaSEC0-03997.0
3AuburnSEC0-0197.0
4OregonP120-03895.0
5OklahomaB120-05193.0
6StanfordP120-01693.0
7UCLAP120-0993.0
8Michigan StateB100-05491.0
9Ohio StateB100-03491.0
10South CarolinaSEC0-03191.0
11MississippiSEC0-01490.0
12WashingtonP120-07288.0
13Southern CaliforniaP120-02588.0
14GeorgiaSEC0-04588.0
15BaylorB120-06284.0
16Central FloridaAAC0-08683.0
17LouisvilleACC0-07981.0
18Miami (Florida)ACC0-01280.0
19Mississippi StateSEC0-04080.0
20DukeACC0-06879.0
21Virginia TechACC0-05879.0
22ClemsonACC0-04979.0
23North CarolinaACC0-01178.0
24HoustonAAC0-09177.0
25Louisiana - Lafayette SB0-09076.0
26MichiganB100-02975.0
27Kansas StateB120-04275.0
28TexasB120-01375.0
29Louisiana StateSEC0-02175.0
30MarshallUSA0-012773.0
31Boise State MW0-07473.0
32WisconsinB100-08071.0
33Texas A&MSEC0-0671.0
34Notre DameInd0-0371.0
35Penn StateB100-04870.0
36NebraskaB100-04470.0
37Brigham YoungInd0-06170.0
38Oregon StateP120-04369.0
39Arizona StateP120-02068.0
40FloridaSEC0-03368.0
41IowaB100-09467.0
42South Alabama SB0-08264.0
43NorthwesternB100-06463.0
44ArizonaP120-01962.0
45CincinnatiAAC0-07362.0
46Fresno State MW0-08361.0
47MarylandB100-02760.0
48MissouriSEC0-03659.0
49Texas ChristianB120-04658.0
50Utah State MW0-010258.0
51Texas TechB120-05057.0
52UtahP120-0457.0
53Northern IllinoisMAC0-012457.0
54East CarolinaAAC0-04155.0
55Texas - San AntonioUSA0-010155.0
56Arkansas State SB0-08755.0
57Bowling GreenMAC0-012054.0
58ToldeoMAC0-012154.0
59Louisiana - Monroe SB0-09554.0
60NavyInd0-09854.0
61Oklahoma StateB120-01553.0
62SyracuseACC0-05252.0
63MinnesotaB100-05652.0
64ArkansasSEC0-0252.0
65RiceUSA0-010650.0
66PittsburghACC0-06348.0
67VirginiaACC0-0848.0
68RutgersB100-01848.0
69MemphisAAC0-07546.0
70Nevada MW0-09346.0
71Colorado State MW0-011646.0
72Texas State SB0-011545.0
73IndianaB100-02644.0
74North TexasUSA0-011944.0
75TennesseeSEC0-0743.0
76Georgia TechACC0-03742.0
77KansasB120-02341.0
78Florida AtlanticUSA0-06941.0
79Western KentuckyUSA0-010541.0
80TulaneAAC0-05740.0
81San Diego State MW0-08539.0
82Idaho SB0-010439.0
83West VirginiaB120-01738.0
84VanderbiltSEC0-05938.0
85Middle Tennessee StateUSA0-011438.0
86Troy SB0-09638.0
87Nevada - Las Vegas MW0-07837.0
88Ball StateMAC0-012536.0
89San Jose State MW0-06534.0
90ColoradoP120-02433.0
91South FloridaAAC0-07733.0
92Wyoming MW0-06732.0
93Iowa StateB120-02831.0
94Washington StateP120-01030.0
95TulsaAAC0-04729.0
96AkronMAC0-011729.0
97OhioMAC0-012229.0
98Central MichiganMAC0-012629.0
99Boston CollegeACC0-05328.0
100Louisiana TechUSA0-07128.0
101BuffaloMAC0-012828.0
102Old DominionUSA0-012326.0
103KentuckySEC0-02225.0
104North Carolina StateACC0-07023.0
105CaliforniaP120-0522.0
106Southern MethodistAAC0-03522.0
107TempleAAC0-06022.0
108Alabama - BirminghamUSA0-09721.0
109Air Force MW0-011021.0
110ConnecticutAAC0-08819.0
111Appalachian State SB0-010819.0
112Wake ForestACC0-03217.0
113Hawai'i MW0-07617.0
114IllinoisB100-03016.0
115New Mexico MW0-08915.0
116Kent StateMAC0-09215.0
117ArmyInd0-011814.0
118Western MichiganMAC0-011212.0
119Southern MississippiUSA0-0819.0
120Texas - El PasoUSA0-0999.0
121PurdueB100-0667.0
122Georgia State SB0-0847.0
123Eastern MichiganMAC0-01036.0
124MassachusettsMAC0-01115.0
125Miami (Ohio)MAC0-01075.0
126New Mexico State SB0-01095.0
127Florida InternationalUSA0-01004.0
128Georgia Southern SB0-01132.0

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

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