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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC10-1896.5
2GeorgiaSEC9-22196.5
3Mississippi StateSEC10-12295.2
4OregonP1210-14994.4
5MississippiSEC8-3393.8
6AuburnSEC8-3193.0
7Texas ChristianB129-16592.0
8Ohio StateB1010-15291.9
9UCLAP129-2691.4
10Michigan StateB109-26390.5
11OklahomaB128-35188.2
12Louisiana StateSEC7-4788.0
13Florida StateACC11-03587.4
14BaylorB129-17386.1
15ArkansasSEC6-5285.8
16Kansas StateB128-24185.5
17Georgia TechACC9-23385.3
18Arizona StateP129-24685.0
19Boise State MW9-26283.9
20LouisvilleACC8-34783.9
21WisconsinB109-26683.8
22ClemsonACC8-33181.5
23MarshallUSA11-012280.8
24MissouriSEC9-23480.0
25NebraskaB108-35678.9
26UtahP127-42578.7
27MinnesotaB108-34278.1
28Miami (Florida)ACC6-51977.8
29FloridaSEC6-41676.5
30Colorado State MW10-18974.5
31ArizonaP129-23274.5
32MemphisAAC8-310173.6
33Southern CaliforniaP127-41173.2
34Notre DameInd7-41872.9
35Texas A&MSEC7-4572.5
36Utah State MW9-38570.1
37Louisiana TechUSA7-47969.2
38Brigham YoungInd7-47667.6
39South CarolinaSEC6-51567.6
40Boston CollegeACC6-55366.8
41StanfordP126-51366.7
42WashingtonP127-56064.4
43North Carolina StateACC6-55562.3
44IowaB107-46862.0
45TennesseeSEC5-6460.6
46West VirginiaB126-53660.0
47Penn StateB106-56458.5
48Virginia TechACC5-64357.9
49DukeACC8-38257.8
50North CarolinaACC6-51757.4
51Air Force MW8-39957.1
52Northern IllinoisMAC9-211956.8
53Nevada MW6-58156.4
54MichiganB105-62056.4
55Georgia Southern SB8-311755.4
56East CarolinaAAC7-310855.1
57VirginiaACC5-61455.1
58RiceUSA7-48354.3
59MarylandB107-45053.8
60CincinnatiAAC7-39053.3
61Central FloridaAAC7-310653.3
62TexasB126-52352.7
63NorthwesternB105-63851.6
64KentuckySEC5-61250.9
65Oregon StateP125-65449.2
66RutgersB106-54548.2
67PittsburghACC5-65747.7
68CaliforniaP125-62647.7
69Western KentuckyUSA6-58647.0
70San Diego State MW6-510346.6
71NavyInd5-58045.5
72Louisiana - Lafayette SB7-410245.3
73Western MichiganMAC8-312345.1
74ToledoMAC7-411342.8
75Texas - El PasoUSA6-59542.3
76Arkansas State SB6-511041.4
77IllinoisB105-62741.2
78Alabama - BirminghamUSA5-67841.0
79HoustonAAC6-411440.7
80Oklahoma StateB125-63040.0
81Middle Tennessee StateUSA6-57038.5
82TempleAAC5-59837.9
83Texas TechB124-72835.7
84SyracuseACC3-83735.2
85Bowling GreenMAC7-411634.5
86Central MichiganMAC7-512633.3
87Appalachian State SB6-512532.7
88IndianaB103-84832.1
89ColoradoP122-9931.5
90South Alabama SB6-510030.0
91Texas State SB6-512729.1
92VanderbiltSEC3-82428.5
93Iowa StateB122-84028.5
94PurdueB103-84428.0
95Washington StateP123-81027.5
96Old DominionUSA5-69127.2
97Wyoming MW4-75926.5
98Fresno State MW5-67225.3
99Wake ForestACC3-83925.2
100AkronMAC5-612425.0
101OhioMAC5-611224.6
102KansasB123-82924.2
103New Mexico MW3-86920.3
104Louisiana - Monroe SB4-78419.8
105Florida InternationalUSA4-810719.5
106Florida AtlanticUSA3-87118.8
107San Jose State MW3-86118.5
108Texas - San AntonioUSA3-89217.7
109Hawai'i MW4-88816.6
110North TexasUSA4-711115.7
111South FloridaAAC4-78715.4
112TulaneAAC3-87515.3
113ArmyInd4-712115.1
114Southern MississippiUSA3-85814.8
115BuffaloMAC4-612812.9
116Ball StateMAC4-712012.1
117Troy SB3-810512.0
118Miami (Ohio)MAC2-910412.0
119MassachusettsMAC3-81188.8
120TulsaAAC2-9778.1
121Kent StateMAC1-9976.7
122Nevada - Las Vegas MW2-10746.5
123ConnecticutAAC2-8946.2
124New Mexico State SB2-91154.5
125Southern MethodistAAC0-10673.7
126Idaho SB1-91093.3
127Eastern MichiganMAC2-9962.7
128Georgia State SB1-10931.2

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2014. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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