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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of FBS contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game were factored into the system. This resulted in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and allowed more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AlabamaSEC14-1298.9
2Ohio StateB1G11-2797.0
3ClemsonACC14-1196.8
4Florida StateACC10-3394.0
5WisconsinB1G11-32193.5
6MichiganB1G10-33493.3
7OklahomaB1211-23992.5
8Southern CaliforniaP1210-3692.1
9WashingtonP1212-23791.7
10Penn StateB1G11-31690.6
11Louisiana StateSEC8-41889.8
12Miami (Florida)ACC9-42487.2
13StanfordP1210-33586.6
14Western MichiganMAC13-111285.6
15Virginia TechACC10-44985.4
16TennesseeSEC9-42083.1
17AuburnSEC8-51383.1
18Georgia TechACC9-42583.0
19Oklahoma StateB1210-35782.9
20West VirginiaB1210-35581.8
21UtahP129-46481.7
22PittsburghACC8-52679.7
23Western KentuckyUSA11-310479.1
24GeorgiaSEC8-54578.0
25San Diego State MW11-311377.8
26South FloridaAAC11-29477.7
27Appalachian StateSBC10-39077.4
28Boise State MW10-37276.8
29MinnesotaB1G9-46776.5
30North Carolina StateACC7-64475.3
31FloridaSEC9-4573.7
32Air Force MW10-310573.4
33ColoradoP1210-4973.2
34Kansas StateB129-44773.1
35Texas A&MSEC8-54072.9
36Brigham YoungInd9-47771.7
37LouisvilleACC9-45371.4
38TulsaAAC10-39869.6
39TempleAAC10-49169.3
40Washington StateP128-54368.6
41TroySBC10-311168.1
42IowaB1G8-56267.5
43HoustonAAC9-48167.0
44North CarolinaACC8-53066.2
45NorthwesternB1G7-64665.1
46BaylorB127-66962.5
47NebraskaB1G9-43662.1
48VanderbiltSEC6-71061.1
49NavyAAC9-57560.2
50KentuckySEC7-62759.3
51ArkansasSEC7-62859.1
52MemphisAAC8-58058.0
53Old DominionUSA10-312257.9
54ToledoMAC9-49557.3
55Boston CollegeACC7-66056.7
56Louisiana TechUSA9-511455.2
57Wyoming MW8-66855.1
58New Mexico MW9-411954.8
59MississippiSEC5-7453.8
60CaliforniaP125-71253.4
61IndianaB1G6-75850.8
62Mississippi StateSEC6-74150.5
63Colorado State MW7-66550.3
64Arkansas StateSBC8-512050.1
65Texas ChristianB126-75449.9
66Wake ForestACC7-65649.4
67TexasB125-75246.9
68IdahoSBC9-410046.7
69UCLAP124-8846.5
70ArmyInd8-512644.4
71OregonP124-81543.8
72Arizona StateP125-73243.1
73Notre DameInd4-83342.2
74MissouriSEC4-82241.2
75South CarolinaSEC6-73840.5
76ArizonaP123-92339.7
77Texas TechB125-75139.4
78MarylandB1G6-76338.8
79Eastern MichiganMAC7-610138.6
80Central FloridaAAC6-78538.2
81OhioMAC8-610838.0
82Miami (Ohio)MAC6-712436.6
83Northern IllinoisMAC5-78635.8
84Middle Tennessee StateUSA8-512734.8
85Michigan StateB1G3-94234.7
86Southern MethodistAAC5-77134.2
87Oregon StateP124-81134.1
88Hawai'i MW7-78433.6
89Southern MississippiUSA7-611032.9
90Georgia SouthernSBC5-77931.6
91Texas - San AntonioUSA6-710331.0
92SyracuseACC4-81430.0
93Iowa StateB123-95929.9
94Central MichiganMAC6-78729.2
95DukeACC4-81729.2
96South AlabamaSBC6-710728.5
97Utah State MW3-94828.4
98TulaneAAC4-88826.6
99Louisiana - LafayetteSBC6-710625.9
100UNLV MW4-89223.3
101IllinoisB1G3-93122.8
102Kent StateMAC3-99620.5
103CincinnatiAAC4-88220.4
104RutgersB1G2-101919.8
105Ball StateMAC4-812119.7
106VirginiaACC2-105019.3
107San Jose State MW4-87318.8
108AkronMAC5-710217.8
109Nevada MW5-712516.2
110ConnecticutAAC3-98913.6
111CharlotteUSA4-812313.0
112KansasB122-102912.6
113North TexasUSA5-810912.5
114East CarolinaAAC3-96111.7
115Georgia StateSBC3-97811.6
116New Mexico StateSBC3-97411.5
117PurdueB1G3-9669.7
118Texas - El PasoUSA4-81289.3
119Louisiana - MonroeSBC4-8768.9
120Florida InternationalUSA4-81187.5
121Bowling GreenMAC4-8937.4
122MassachusettsInd2-10707.0
123BuffaloMAC2-101176.8
124Fresno State MW1-11835.5
125Florida AtlanticUSA3-91165.1
126MarshallUSA3-91154.9
127RiceUSA3-9992.9
128Texas StateSBC2-10971.2

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two FBS college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 128 FBS teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Sections ranking each team's strength of schedule and strength of accomplishment are also included in the rankings. Strength of accomplishment provides a formula that could conceivably be used to evaluate teams for inclusion in a playoff system.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 1998-2017. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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