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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1AuburnSEC4-0198.1
2AlabamaSEC4-0796.3
3OklahomaB124-02795.1
4OregonP124-02393.8
5UCLAP124-0692.1
6MississippiSEC4-0991.2
7NebraskaB105-04990.5
8Texas A&MSEC5-0490.1
9Florida StateACC4-03787.0
10Michigan StateB103-15086.8
11Mississippi StateSEC4-01886.6
12Brigham YoungInd4-07584.6
13MinnesotaB104-14083.8
14Texas ChristianB123-02883.7
15Louisiana StateSEC4-1583.0
16Notre DameInd4-04782.9
17Kansas StateB123-11782.1
18BaylorB124-04680.2
19ArizonaP124-02179.1
20ArkansasSEC3-2278.3
21FloridaSEC2-13478.1
22North Carolina StateACC4-18276.0
23MarshallUSA4-010774.7
24Oklahoma StateB123-11074.7
25Ohio StateB103-13974.4
26WisconsinB103-15673.2
27GeorgiaSEC3-14872.9
28Penn StateB104-16172.7
29StanfordP123-11172.6
30South CarolinaSEC3-22672.0
31LouisvilleACC4-15271.9
32MemphisAAC2-28770.6
33VirginiaACC3-23569.8
34Southern CaliforniaP123-11569.1
35West VirginiaB122-2867.8
36UtahP123-13367.5
37MissouriSEC4-14466.6
38TexasB122-2365.5
39MarylandB104-14565.3
40Miami (Florida)ACC3-24164.5
41WashingtonP124-15764.4
42Nevada MW3-18564.1
43Wyoming MW3-27963.8
44Air Force MW3-110863.7
45East CarolinaAAC3-110363.2
46Arizona StateP123-13862.3
47Georgia TechACC4-05561.1
48IowaB104-15960.5
49CaliforniaP123-11260.5
50NorthwesternB102-22560.4
51Boise State MW3-26958.9
52KentuckySEC3-13058.7
53RutgersB104-13257.7
54Middle Tennessee StateUSA3-26657.7
55ClemsonACC2-26357.3
56Louisiana TechUSA2-37157.1
57Virginia TechACC3-27656.8
58PittsburghACC3-27756.4
59Northern IllinoisMAC3-112356.0
60Florida AtlanticUSA2-33652.9
61Washington StateP122-31449.0
62DukeACC4-110048.8
63Georgia Southern SB3-211248.5
64Texas TechB122-21348.0
65Central FloridaAAC1-29148.0
66Iowa StateB121-32247.4
67TennesseeSEC2-21946.8
68RiceUSA1-36446.6
69Texas - San AntonioUSA1-37246.5
70MichiganB102-32045.7
71Oregon StateP123-16245.4
72IllinoisB103-23145.2
73Boston CollegeACC3-26745.2
74NavyInd2-37845.2
75North TexasUSA2-29444.8
76HoustonAAC2-29844.0
77CincinnatiAAC2-19043.5
78TempleAAC3-19643.4
79AkronMAC2-211543.1
80Colorado State MW3-19542.8
81Louisiana - Monroe SB3-19740.5
82Old DominionUSA3-28639.2
83IndianaB102-25139.2
84San Jose State MW1-37438.6
85SyracuseACC2-25837.2
86South Alabama SB2-210936.9
87Western KentuckyUSA2-27035.9
88Alabama - BirminghamUSA2-26833.7
89Texas - El PasoUSA2-28433.0
90ToledoMAC3-211932.5
91Utah State MW2-29332.1
92North CarolinaACC2-22931.8
93Fresno State MW2-38130.6
94Southern MethodistAAC0-45329.9
95Texas State SB2-212129.5
96South FloridaAAC2-37329.5
97OhioMAC3-211728.2
98ColoradoP122-32428.2
99Louisiana - Lafayette SB1-310527.9
100Arkansas State SB2-212026.1
101Florida InternationalUSA2-38825.3
102ArmyInd1-311423.5
103VanderbiltSEC1-44223.1
104Bowling GreenMAC3-211623.0
105KansasB122-21622.7
106San Diego State MW2-210422.5
107Ball StateMAC1-312421.6
108PurdueB102-34319.9
109BuffaloMAC3-212819.4
110Southern MississippiUSA2-35419.1
111Western MichiganMAC2-212618.3
112TulsaAAC1-36517.8
113Wake ForestACC2-36015.8
114ConnecticutAAC1-48915.7
115New Mexico MW1-39214.4
116TulaneAAC1-48014.0
117Hawai'i MW1-39913.3
118Eastern MichiganMAC1-310112.6
119Central MichiganMAC2-312511.3
120Kent StateMAC0-410211.3
121New Mexico State SB2-311810.1
122Appalachian State SB1-312710.1
123Idaho SB0-41228.4
124Georgia State SB1-31067.9
125Nevada - Las Vegas MW1-4837.8
126Troy SB0-51117.2
127Miami (Ohio)MAC0-51106.2
128MassachusettsMAC0-51134.6

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2014. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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