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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of FBS contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game were factored into the system. This resulted in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and allowed more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1ClemsonACC4-02295.5
2MichiganB1G4-04493.8
3HoustonAAC4-04693.0
4Texas A&MSEC4-04392.7
5Ohio StateB1G3-01191.9
6AlabamaSEC4-03591.2
7StanfordP123-03889.6
8Boise State MW3-010588.5
9TennesseeSEC4-01787.9
10Western MichiganMAC4-010385.0
11Miami (Florida)ACC3-07184.3
12WisconsinB1G4-01384.0
13NebraskaB1G4-02782.3
14LouisvilleACC4-04982.3
15WashingtonP124-05881.9
16West VirginiaB123-06981.9
17NavyAAC3-06178.6
18Florida StateACC3-1678.2
19Virginia TechACC3-17377.5
20FloridaSEC3-16276.6
21ToledoMAC3-010774.7
22AuburnSEC2-23074.7
23OklahomaB121-22174.7
24ColoradoP123-11274.5
25San Diego State MW3-012674.4
26UtahP124-04874.2
27Arizona StateP124-04073.8
28UCLAP122-2572.3
29Wake ForestACC4-05172.1
30ArkansasSEC3-11472.1
31Georgia TechACC3-13671.6
32MinnesotaB1G3-07270.0
33South FloridaAAC3-18170.0
34Washington StateP121-2969.6
35Texas ChristianB123-16869.3
36BaylorB124-07968.0
37Louisiana StateSEC2-2367.8
38Appalachian StateSBC2-27566.8
39IowaB1G3-17466.7
40MemphisAAC3-06666.1
41Kansas StateB122-14166.0
42Air Force MW3-011364.8
43Georgia SouthernSBC3-18564.3
44MissouriSEC2-22963.9
45TulaneAAC2-26363.4
46MississippiSEC2-2461.1
47GeorgiaSEC3-13160.4
48OregonP122-2860.0
49TroySBC3-19859.1
50Brigham YoungInd1-33958.6
51IndianaB1G2-13758.5
52North CarolinaACC3-17057.8
53MarylandB1G3-05957.7
54NorthwesternB1G1-32657.3
55Southern MississippiUSA3-112457.0
56TulsaAAC3-15355.7
57CincinnatiAAC3-18055.3
58Boston CollegeACC2-23251.6
59PittsburghACC2-25749.5
60CaliforniaP122-2749.2
61ConnecticutAAC2-26049.0
62Mississippi StateSEC2-23348.8
63VanderbiltSEC2-22348.4
64Louisiana - LafayetteSBC2-29447.5
65Michigan StateB1G2-15447.3
66Texas TechB122-15647.2
67TexasB122-16746.8
68Central MichiganMAC3-110846.4
69OhioMAC2-210946.4
70Penn StateB1G2-25046.0
71ArmyInd3-111745.9
72ArizonaP122-21944.9
73Western KentuckyUSA2-212243.6
74Southern CaliforniaP121-3243.3
75North Carolina StateACC2-13443.2
76Oregon StateP121-2141.5
77Central FloridaAAC2-24741.3
78Oklahoma StateB122-25540.7
79South CarolinaSEC2-22839.8
80Middle Tennessee StateUSA3-112539.6
81SyracuseACC2-21539.2
82KentuckySEC2-21838.9
83AkronMAC2-28938.0
84Ball StateMAC3-19937.7
85East CarolinaAAC2-26535.4
86Iowa StateB121-36434.5
87VirginiaACC1-31634.4
88South AlabamaSBC2-210033.1
89IllinoisB1G1-21032.9
90RutgersB1G2-22032.2
91Eastern MichiganMAC3-110232.0
92Texas StateSBC1-29332.0
93Old DominionUSA2-212330.8
94Colorado State MW2-27630.7
95TempleAAC2-28430.7
96Georgia StateSBC0-37729.8
97Utah State MW2-29729.5
98Wyoming MW2-29629.2
99Southern MethodistAAC2-24229.1
100BuffaloMAC1-211129.1
101DukeACC2-22428.7
102IdahoSBC2-29026.6
103MarshallUSA1-211425.5
104Northern IllinoisMAC0-47824.8
105KansasB121-22523.5
106Louisiana TechUSA1-312022.1
107PurdueB1G2-14521.8
108Florida AtlanticUSA1-311521.0
109Notre DameInd1-35221.0
110UNLV MW1-310119.8
111New Mexico MW1-212119.6
112Arkansas StateSBC0-49518.8
113Bowling GreenMAC1-38718.5
114Nevada MW2-212718.3
115Fresno State MW1-39217.6
116Louisiana - MonroeSBC1-28215.7
117Hawai'i MW1-38614.7
118San Jose State MW1-38814.3
119MassachusettsInd1-39114.2
120Kent StateMAC1-310413.8
121Miami (Ohio)MAC0-410612.8
122North TexasUSA2-211612.5
123Texas - San AntonioUSA1-311211.9
124Texas - El PasoUSA1-31289.9
125CharlotteUSA1-31187.8
126Florida InternationalUSA0-41197.3
127New Mexico StateSBC1-3836.6
128RiceUSA0-41106.6

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two FBS college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 128 FBS teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 127 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Sections ranking each team's strength of schedule and strength of accomplishment are also included in the rankings. Strength of accomplishment provides a formula that could conceivably be used to evaluate teams for inclusion in a playoff system.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2016. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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