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Football Frontier College Ratings

Since 1997, Solecismic Software has published a college football rating system. The system is designed to predict games, and has predicted the winner of Division I-A contests about 70% of the time.

The system received an overhaul for the 2007 season. As before, the system takes into account the final score of the game, but the law of diminishing returns applies. A couple of late touchdowns in a blowout have no effect on a team's ranking.

Starting in 2007, key statistics from each game are factored into the system. This should result in more dominant teams rising more quickly in the ratings, and will allow more precision in predicting scores.

RankTeamConf.RecordSchedule
Strength
Rating
1MississippiSEC7-0897.2
2AuburnSEC5-1196.8
3Mississippi StateSEC6-01895.8
4AlabamaSEC6-1495.1
5GeorgiaSEC6-13894.5
6Texas ChristianB125-15393.5
7Florida StateACC7-02792.4
8OregonP126-14392.4
9Michigan StateB106-15691.8
10Kansas StateB125-12890.7
11ClemsonACC5-24289.1
12NebraskaB106-16288.6
13Notre DameInd6-13587.7
14Ohio StateB105-15887.7
15OklahomaB125-23787.3
16UCLAP125-2786.3
17MinnesotaB106-15084.6
18UtahP125-13284.3
19Louisiana StateSEC6-21683.8
20MarshallUSA7-011583.2
21LouisvilleACC6-22679.1
22West VirginiaB125-22578.5
23Arizona StateP125-14078.2
24Colorado State MW6-18477.3
25Southern CaliforniaP125-21177.1
26BaylorB126-16176.8
27ArizonaP125-13676.4
28Boise State MW5-26975.9
29ArkansasSEC3-4274.4
30Miami (Florida)ACC4-31773.4
31East CarolinaAAC5-111372.7
32Texas A&MSEC5-3672.4
33Georgia TechACC5-23171.3
34MissouriSEC5-24471.0
35DukeACC6-18270.3
36Oklahoma StateB125-22369.3
37MemphisAAC3-310169.3
38South CarolinaSEC4-31467.9
39Louisiana TechUSA4-38767.1
40Boston CollegeACC4-34666.9
41KentuckySEC5-22966.4
42VirginiaACC4-32065.9
43Brigham YoungInd4-37765.7
44PittsburghACC4-35164.3
45FloridaSEC3-32163.9
46TennesseeSEC3-4363.8
47MarylandB105-24763.7
48Oregon StateP124-25762.4
49StanfordP124-31562.2
50Virginia TechACC4-34161.9
51Nevada MW4-37961.8
52Utah State MW4-37661.6
53IowaB105-27060.8
54Penn StateB104-26858.9
55WisconsinB104-26757.4
56Arkansas State SB4-211056.5
57MichiganB103-41954.6
58Georgia Southern SB5-212254.5
59Middle Tennessee StateUSA5-37154.2
60WashingtonP125-26353.7
61Air Force MW5-210352.2
62North Carolina StateACC4-45551.2
63CaliforniaP124-33449.9
64RutgersB105-24549.5
65North CarolinaACC3-4549.4
66SyracuseACC3-42447.1
67South Alabama SB4-210644.5
68Central FloridaAAC4-210444.3
69Alabama - BirminghamUSA4-37544.1
70HoustonAAC4-311644.0
71NorthwesternB103-44843.9
72IndianaB103-45243.0
73TexasB123-41242.8
74Texas TechB123-42242.8
75San Jose State MW3-36542.1
76Northern IllinoisMAC5-212340.7
77RiceUSA3-37340.7
78AkronMAC4-311940.3
79Iowa StateB122-53039.1
80ToledoMAC4-312139.0
81San Diego State MW4-39537.0
82Central MichiganMAC4-412536.5
83Texas - El PasoUSA3-39135.9
84Louisiana - Lafayette SB3-39935.1
85Western MichiganMAC4-312434.7
86Florida AtlanticUSA3-46433.3
87PurdueB103-54933.2
88TempleAAC4-210732.3
89Washington StateP122-51332.2
90Wyoming MW3-45931.9
91NavyInd3-48131.7
92Florida InternationalUSA3-59631.4
93CincinnatiAAC3-38930.3
94ColoradoP122-5930.2
95Texas - San AntonioUSA2-58528.5
96Bowling GreenMAC5-312026.0
97Louisiana - Monroe SB3-39025.4
98Old DominionUSA3-49325.0
99Western KentuckyUSA2-48823.2
100KansasB122-51022.4
101Fresno State MW3-56621.4
102OhioMAC4-410921.0
103VanderbiltSEC2-53320.7
104Texas State SB3-312619.1
105Wake ForestACC2-53919.1
106Southern MississippiUSA3-46019.0
107Hawai'i MW2-58618.8
108New Mexico MW2-58318.5
109South FloridaAAC3-49217.2
110IllinoisB103-45416.9
111Appalachian State SB2-511715.7
112North TexasUSA2-510515.1
113ArmyInd2-512714.7
114TulaneAAC2-58014.5
115Ball StateMAC2-511814.4
116BuffaloMAC3-412810.9
117MassachusettsMAC2-611410.1
118Miami (Ohio)MAC1-71089.8
119Southern MethodistAAC0-6729.5
120Troy SB1-61028.1
121ConnecticutAAC1-5977.2
122Georgia State SB1-6946.6
123Nevada - Las Vegas MW2-5785.6
124Kent StateMAC1-61005.3
125TulsaAAC1-6745.0
126Idaho SB1-61124.5
127Eastern MichiganMAC2-5983.6
128New Mexico State SB2-61112.4

Explanation of Football Frontier Ratings

The ratings system is based on an assessment of each game played between two Division I-A college football teams.

The final score matters, but since the game score is curved using a "normal" distribution and there's a limit to how high a game score a team can achieve, running up the score doesn't make much difference.

A home-field advantage is built into the system, and a team's ranking in several key offensive and defensive statistics is built into the system. To further mitigate the effects of luck in a final score, the team's strength of schedule is also factored in.

Once the game scores have been adjusted, I set up a grid of all 126 Division I-A teams and compare each team to every other team, passing through as many relevant game scores as possible. The algorithm will use as many as seven steps to make a comparison between two teams. Shorter links, with the shortest being an actual game between the two teams, are given precedence over longer links.

I then rate the teams based on the percentage of favorable comparisons between teams. A perfect score of 100 means that team has a positive game score in comparison to all 125 possible Division I-A opponents, as well as a maximum score in the offense and defense ratings.

For the first six weeks of the season, last year's rating, modified by the number of returning starters, is used as a diminishing portion of each team's rating.

Copyright © Solecismic Software, 2014. All Rights Reserved.

 

 

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