In my last three posts, I put together the basis of an objective system for ranking FBS schools for the purpose of conference realignment. There are problems with doing this, of course. Primarily, being a member of a top conference leads to a better financial performance and the perception that a team belongs in the BCS. There’s no doubt, for example, that Mississippi State would be a mid-to-low Conference USA school if it didn’t have SEC membership.

The second major problem is that there are many other factors in determining value that are hard to quantify. How much does adding a school in a big media market really mean? Michigan is huge in the Detroit area, the 11th-largest DMA in the country. Eastern Michigan, which is a few miles closer to Detroit, has considerably less impact on the Detroit market. In fact, the television rights to most MAC games could be purchased by the average reader of this blog if these games were available individually. This is essentially why there isn’t a huge bidding war for Rutgers among the major conferences.

Other factors that I’ve read affect these decisions are the strength of women’s programs. Or personal friendships between conference commissioners and university presidents. Or location near a particularly powerful lawmaker. It’s also difficult to determine how much travel a team is willing to undertake. Just imagine the expense of moving a 30-person women’s soccer team (plus coaches and support staff) from Pullman, Washington to Austin, Texas. That’ll eat up your new television money rather quickly.

I’ve done my best to come up with a ranking, but it’s by no means perfect.

The purpose of this wrap-up piece is to list, in order, my estimation of which schools are on the radar of each conference. In some cases, the choices are obvious. In others, the difference between choices is very small.

I’ll start with the Big Ten:

Rank	Big Ten?
1	Texas
2	Notre Dame
3	Georgia Tech
4	Nebraska
5	Texas A&M
6	Pittsburgh
7	North Carolina
8	Maryland
9	Virginia
10	Missouri
11	Rutgers
12	Kansas
13	Duke
14	Syracuse

I put a heavy emphasis on academics with the Big Ten. Schools (other than Notre Dame) must be in the AAU. I included ACC schools, because if the majors expand to 16 schools, it’s likely the SEC will raid the ACC, greatly devaluing membership.

However, it’s not realistic to expect North Carolina, Duke or even Virginia to consider this kind of move. Maryland is a possibility, but everything I’ve heard out of Maryland has indicated that’s not a strong possibility unless there is a complete ACC collapse.

My guess is that the more distant schools at the top of this list, Texas and Georgia Tech, would be in the same boat. Given the Big Ten seemed to want only one new school in the near future, and Notre Dame wasn’t going to accept a bid, Nebraska was by far the best choice. And maybe the only choice strong enough to warrant such an invitation. I think Pittsburgh is close to that level, but that opinion is not shared by many sportswriters.

Next up is the Pac Ten, which is more limited by geography:

Rank	Pac Ten?
1	Texas
2	Nebraska
3	Texas A&M
4	Oklahoma
5	Colorado
6	Missouri
7	Kansas
8	Utah
9	Hawaii
10	Brigham Young
11	Oklahoma State
12	Iowa State
13	Texas Christian
14	Baylor
15	Texas Tech
16	Kansas State
17	Colorado State
18	Rice
19	Tulsa
20	New Mexico

I ran this list quite a long way past the point where the Pac Ten would reasonably extend invitations. On their own, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech would never be asked to join the Pac Ten. It’s rumored that the Pac Ten’s decision to try and substitute Kansas for Oklahoma State in its recent attempt to raid the Big XII is what made Texas decide to save the Big XII.

The Pac Ten is very strong academically, so I weighted academics fairly heavily in this list. Distance is an issue. Hawaii would likely make a good BCS school, but traveling there is so expensive.

I believe the Big Ten acted quickly to invite Nebraska because it would have made sense for the Pac Ten to start a move to 16 by inviting Colorado and Nebraska, and then seeing what else happened. Since it ultimately could not pull in Texas or break the Big XII, I think it made the right decision in taking Colorado and Utah. And the conference will have trouble if it tries to move to 16 without more Big XII schools. It won’t be remotely worth the expense.

The third major-major is the SEC, which currently owns the richest television contracts:

Rank	SEC?
1	Texas
2	Notre Dame
3	Oklahoma
4	Nebraska
5	Virginia Tech
6	Texas A&M
7	Georgia Tech
8	Clemson
9	Pittsburgh
10	West Virginia
11	Miami, Florida
12	Virginia
13	Maryland
14	Missouri
15	North Carolina
16	North Carolina State
17	Kansas
18	Florida State
19	Rutgers
20	Oklahoma State

I used a far lower academic weight for this list. Basically, the SEC would have to decide which direction it wanted to move in expansion. Would it want a presence in the north? Notre Dame doesn’t seem like a good fit. Or a nice package of Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Georgia Tech, giving it complete southern dominance without putting much strain on its geography.

The SEC, like the Big Ten, can afford to wait because it has so many good choices if realignment to a 16-school conference system is warranted. Unlike the Big Ten, it can set off realignment very quickly and thoroughly because it’s likely it would choose one direction and raid while the Big Ten is more likely to go piece by piece and wait for Notre Dame.

Next is the ACC, which might be in the position of having to recover from such a raid:

Rank	ACC?
1	Pittsburgh
2	Missouri
3	West Virginia
4	Rutgers
5	Kansas
6	Cincinnati
7	Syracuse
8	Connecticut
9	Louisville
10	Kansas State
11	South Florida
12	Tulane
13	Miami, Ohio

I’ll stop here, because it’s already ugly. And crystal clear that the ACC’s only option to replace schools is to further raid the Big East. I used a medium weight for academics for this list. If there is a full realignment in college football, I see three major conferences emerging plus an agreement between the ACC and the Big XII.

Batting fifth, the Big XII, which may or may not want to replace the two lost schools:

Rank	Big XII?
1	Brigham Young
2	Cincinnati
3	Texas Christian
4	Louisville
5	Tulsa
6	Tulane
7	Colorado State
8	Miami, Ohio
9	Southern Mississippi
10	New Mexico
11	Rice
12	Houston

Brigham Young has value, but since it doesn’t play sports on Sunday, I’m not convinced a major conference would make an offer. This list, too, gets ugly fairly quickly. I’m intrigued by the possibilities of Tulane, a strong academic school that might open up the incredibly rich recruiting fields of Louisiana to more Big XII schools. But I’m not convinced that adding two schools that have about as much value as the bottom Big XII schools is worth the cost to the conference, even if it would reinstate the conference championship game.

Finally, the Big East:

Rank	Big East?
1	Navy
2	Miami, Ohio
3	Central Michigan
4	Marshall
5	East Carolina
6	Central Florida
7	Memphis
8	Toledo
9	Army
10	Ohio
11	Bowling Green
12	Alabama-Birmingham
13	Temple
14	Akron
15	Buffalo

I ran this list out quite a distance to illustrate exactly why the Big East is not going to stick around for football if it gets raided again. Better to focus on basketball and let the football-playing schools have independence in football.

Hopefully, I’ve presented a fairly accurate picture of how conferences will change if there is further realignment. I think we have relative stability for now, as long as the television networks are willing to pay too much to the Big XII and the ACC to prevent realignment. Texas, however, is not going to be satisfied in the Big XII for the indefinite future. All eyes should remain on the Longhorns until this question is permanently settled.