Identifying Your Quarterback

Here’s a list NFL trivia buffs might find easy to identify:

Tony Romo 77
Shaun Hill 16
Matt Moore 13
Brian Hoyer 9
Austin Davis 3
Case Keenum 2
Thad Lewis 2
Chase Daniel 1
Matt McGloin 1

These are all quarterbacks currently on NFL rosters. Three of them are in their 30s. McGloin, the youngest, is 25. Other than Romo, all career backups or clipboard carriers.

Some of you would instantly notice that all nine of these quarterbacks were undrafted. And, in fact, this list is career wins (regular season and playoffs) for all current NFL quarterbacks who went undrafted.

Right now, spread throughout the OTAs across the league, about a dozen quarterbacks who weren’t drafted last month are signed members of various teams. Names like Dylan Thompson, Devin Gardner, Jake Heaps, Brandon Bridge, Jerry Lovelocke. A couple, like Gardner, are trying new positions. Most of them are “camp arms,” guys who don’t have the physical skills necessary to be NFL quarterbacks, but are in shape and useful in camp and hope that maybe lightning will strike and the right opportunity will arise.

Once or twice a year, it does. Last year, Connor Show made a start for Cleveland. The year before, McGloin made a half-dozen starts for Oakland. Davis impressed people as an undrafted rookie in 2012 and fared decently as the Rams’ starting quarterback for half of last season.

Then there’s Romo. He’s 35 now, was undrafted out of Eastern Illinois in 2003, but stuck with the Cowboys. He got his chance three years later when Drew Bledsoe was struggling. He’s been the Dallas starter ever since. And he’s been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL since, though many people feel he’s not great in elimination games. And you can count on someone mentioning his failure to field the snap as the holder on a key field goal attempt in a playoff loss to Seattle in 2006. But he owns 77 of the 124 career wins for current undrafted quarterbacks.

As an aside, there are 2064 career quarterback wins currently represented on NFL rosters.

A starting quarterback is usually the face of your franchise. You can guarantee that when Tampa Bay opens the season against Tennessee this September, it will be marketed as “Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers against Marcus Mariota and the Titans” even though neither quarterback has played a single down in the NFL. Winston and Mariota were drafted 1 and 2 last month and, for the 17 franchises which feature a quarterback drafted in the top 12 picks of the first round, those are the faces they market without question.

Putting an undrafted quarterback in the huddle is a big deal. It’s hard to market a guy all 32 teams passed on drafting… an average of eight times per team. He’s not even Mr. Irrelevant.

We should look at what Romo has accomplished as almost unique in NFL history. Not only has he risen to become the quarterback of a successful franchise, he has cobbled together a 77-50 record in the NFL. While he isn’t Hall of Fame material, he has gone from an afterthought to an $18 million per year star.

His .606 winning percentage is sixth in the NFL amongst current quarterbacks with more than three years of starting experience. When you trail only Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Flacco, you’re in fairly good company.

NFL Quarterback Status – Week One of Free Agency

There’s no question it’s a bleak year for quarterbacks signing with new teams. We’ve seen a handful of the usual suspects receive very high backup money to receive starting opportunities with new teams.

Brian Hoyer (29 – all ages in this article reflect a player’s age at the start of the 2015 season) will probably get the first chance to start in Houston. Ryan Mallett (27) was resigned to compete for that starting role. Josh McCown (36) will start in Cleveland if Johnny Manziel (22 – the youngest quarterback on an NFL roster today) still isn’t ready. I still think Manziel is the long-term answer there. He is capable, and hopefully he’ll work as hard as NFL quarterbacks need to work.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (32) was traded to the New York Jets, and seems likely to start unless the Jets maneuver their way up the draft or Marcus Mariota somehow drops to the sixth position. Given team needs, I think that’s unlikely, but there are quite a few NFL people who don’t believe in Mariota. Fitzpatrick looked like a real starter at times with Houston last season. What stands out is his 35-54 career record. Quarterbacks who lose more than they win almost never, even on bad teams, remain the starter more than a couple of seasons.

That’s why Sam Bradford (27), the first pick in the 2010 draft, was traded to Philadelphia in one of the more intriguing moves in post-cap NFL history. Teams almost never trade big-money starting quarterbacks. Bradford, whose career record of 18-30 and extensive injury history indicated he was in danger of losing his big-money starter status, may benefit from a new start in Chip Kelly’s frenetic system where every player, offense and defense, winds up giving the Eagles about three extra games’ worth of snaps during the season. As an aside, people have criticized Kelly for bringing in two name free-agent running backs this week. They’ll both get plenty of use in Philadelphia.

On the other end of that trade, Nick Foles (26) was drafted as a raw prospect who had plenty of potential. He struggled last season, but could still be a solid starting quarterback in St. Louis. The Rams should be on many lists of potential big improvers in 2015. That’s a big deal since the Rams last had a winning record in 2003. Of the 15 other NFC teams, all but two have had ten-win seasons in the last three years. Of those two, the New York Giants won ten in 2010 and the Super Bowl following the 2011 season. And Tampa Bay also won ten in 2010.

Oakland is the other NFL team that’s seen an entire decade as woeful as the Rams’ last decade. The Raiders signed Christian Ponder (27) to play their backup role this season. This means the Matt Schaub (34) experiment is over. Schaub received $8 million last season and attempted just ten passes. Two were intercepted, and he fumbled on three other plays. Schaub was on verge of stardom in 2012 with Houston, but was terrible in 2013. Oakland gave up a sixth-rounder and a big contract to trade for Schaub, and he couldn’t get on the field. Before completely condemning the Raiders for lack of brainpower, at least they designed a contract that means they can cut him right now without any of his $5.5 million counting under the cap.

Although, and here’s the intriguing piece of the ever-so-sad Schaub story, any other team in this situation would already have cut Schaub by now. The NFL has a salary cap floor. Over a four-year period (which ends in 2016), teams have to spend 89% of their total cap room. But the Raiders have severe cash-flow issues and are nowhere near 89%. Can they make up the difference next year? It’s unknown. Cutting Schaub might make it more difficult to reach 89%. However, the penalty for violating the cap floor is a fine that might not exceed $5 million. Like not having catastrophic health insurance if you’re young and healthy, the fine might be worth it.

If Schaub isn’t cut before the draft, the only possible reason is that the Raiders are trying to avoid that fine next year. If he is cut, teams may want to work him out, because he’s not that old and he looked awfully good in 2012. Whether he would get another opportunity is uncertain, because he wasn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback the last two years and quarterbacks in his age group don’t clog up roster spots if they’re not capable of being a decent backup.

So (I can’t resist writing this), what do you call the process of greatly enjoying the absolute mess the Davis family has made in Oakland? Schaubenfreude. Thought I had something there, but there are 3,670 Google hits for that pun. Oh, well.

Jay Cutler (32) remains the guy in Chicago. Most of his 2016 salary is now guaranteed. Maybe a new coaching staff will allow Cutler to realize his potential. Who knows? He’s just good enough to warrant another chance. Especially since the Bears don’t have alternatives. Jimmy Clausen (27 – the ultimate “looks like a great one in workouts, but can’t execute on the field” prospect) was resigned as a backup.

Matt Cassel (33) was traded to Buffalo. He hasn’t looked like even an average starter since 2010 and his solid 2008 in his only year starting in New England (Tom Brady’s knee-injury year) is the strongest case for Bill Belichick’s well-deserved “greatest coach in the history of everything-anywhere-ever” reputation. So the odds are good he won’t impress people, and E.J. Manuel (25) will be in the mix, as he’ll be in the third year of his rookie contract. Along with Tyrod Taylor (26), who received a shockingly-high contract as a free agent. Will one of those three step forward? The Bills are well stocked otherwise. It could happen. My guess is not with Cassel.

Some teams still need backups. What’s left in free agency boggles the mind. When you start wondering what Matt Moore (31) is doing, you’re already scraping the bottom. But Moore has a 13-13 career record, which stands out amongst the backups. So if he’s in playing shape, he’ll get more looks. Colt McCoy (28) and Matt Flynn (30) are still out there. I think Matt Kafka (28) received an invitation to the veteran Combine. It’s likely a couple of veteran free agent quarterbacks will get real opportunities as a backup. Not enthusiastically.

In studying rosters, teams generally want backups who have some starting experience. Guys like Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Charlie Whitehurst (33), Ponder, Mark Sanchez (28). Guys who haven’t earned big contracts, but still have the drive, can get a playbook down, and probably won’t completely kill your season if your starter gets hurt.

Most quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds who don’t get cut during their rookie contracts have starting experience. Scouting is much better than it was even ten years ago, and the draft fairly evaluates them. Only two quarterbacks are currently on rosters who were drafted in the first three rounds and have never started. Coincidentally, they are the primary backups to Peyton Manning (39) and Tom Brady (38), the league’s two oldest starting quarterbacks. Brock Osweiler (24) and Jimmy Garoppolo (23) are valuable apprentices.

Most teams carry a third quarterback these days, though he’s no longer active on game day. This is where you stash your project quarterback – usually a guy drafted in the fourth round or lower or not at all. It’s unlikely you’ll find starting material here, but these are your future primary backups. Maybe once in a great while, you’ll find a average-plus starter here. There are a handful of teams, like Arizona with Logan Thomas (24) and Houston with Tom Savage (25), who have realistic dreams at this position.

While most teams now have their 2015 quarterbacks in place, a couple of teams aren’t set. Tampa Bay will draft Jameis Winston and start him right away. Nothing else makes sense. Mike Glennon (25) more fits the role of a backup and Seth Lobato (24) is a clipboard carrier. And Tennessee, with Whitehurst as an adequate backup, does have Zach Mettenberger (24) in the starter’s role. Mettenberger was 0-6 last season as a rookie sixth-rounder. The Titans are in position to draft Mariota. They should either draft him or let someone overwhelm them with a trade offer. But that might not happen. To me, Mariota’s fate is going to be the big story of the 2015 draft. If not Tennessee, then the Jets or maybe even Chicago.

Brandon on the Block

The Chicago Bears, coming off a very disappointing 5-11 season and trying to deal with one of the more unusual and difficult quarterback situations in modern history, are allegedly trying to trade wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Marshall is probably not what we’d call a “red flag” player. He’s generally a positive presence. But like many wide receivers, he sometimes forgets the world may not be big enough for his ego. And he has little patience for bad teams.

The question is, though, what can a team expect from Marshall. Last we saw him, in week 14, he took one of the nastier hits of the 2014 season. Painful, and clearly season-ending, but something he’s probably fully recovered from already.

Marshall has played nine seasons. He peaked in season six with Miami, and still got traded. With Chicago, he continued at that level for two years, earning first-team all-pro in 2012. In 2013, he maintained a high average per target, but his targets dropped as Alshon Jeffery became a top starter. In 2014, production was down significantly, but do we blame this on Jay Cutler’s poor season? Or other injuries? Or any number of issues?

I can’t say why he dropped so much in 2014. I can only assess what to expect from a tenth-year wide receiver with a similar career arc.

Fifty-three receivers who started their careers from 1999-2006 have played nine seasons. Of those, 12 are currently going into their tenth season and another 12 retired or stopped receiving playing time.

His peers in this group in terms of similar career paths include Roddy White, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson. That’s fairly good company. In fact, Marshall’s size and speed are remarkably similar to Colston’s. Since Colston is also going into his tenth season, his career-track is relevant. Colston was a more consistent performer over his career, but seems to be in a sharper decline. He’s the one in the group I’d be most concerned about.

Chad Johnson, who, like Marshall, had a peak year in his seventh year, dropped considerably in year ten and was pretty much useless in his eleventh and last season. Fitzgerald dropped quite a bit in year nine and has remained at that new level. He’s now going into year twelve. Andre Johnson struggled with injuries in year nine, came back as a force in his tenth year, kept that going into year eleven, dropped in production for last season, his twelfth, and is coming back for a 13th year. Boldin’s a more consistent performer and seems fine going into his 13th season. White has had a few minor injury issues and, as more of a speed guy, is dropping off a little more than the others. I’d be less concerned about his decline because he plays a different role.

It’s all about staying healthy at this age, but the 53 with nine seasons averaged 577 yards receiving in year nine (Marshall had 721) and the 29 who had a tenth season averaged 685 yards receiving in that season. It’s really year 13 when receivers rarely show the ability to start.

While Marshall probably won’t get back to his 2012 production, he probably will rebound from 2014 and should be right around 1,000 – 1,200 receiving yards. These big, durable receivers are often good into year twelve. So three more productive years is a reasonable assumption for a guy with his skill set.

Is that worth the mid-round pick the Bears are reportedly asking? Well, coincidentally, he has three years left on his contract. His salary/workout bonus numbers are $7.7 million, $8.1 million and $8.5 million. That’s a lot. But probably worth it for a team that’s poised to make a real run at the Super Bowl and needs a big possession guy who can eat up 9-10 targets per game. And if he does decline, there’s no cap issue with releasing him after a trade. I think it’s a good risk, especially if he can be had with a fourth-round pick and the team can absorb the cap hit.

Expanding the NFL Playoffs – Revisited

Roger Goodell has indicated the NFL is considering expanding its playoff system from 12 teams to 14 teams as early as next season. He is promising more competitive matches at the end of season as well as more memorable moments for fans. He didn’t give any specifics, but it’s likely that the expansion would come from a third wild card team in each conference. The second seed would lose its bye and play the seventh seed.

Last year, when this proposal was first mentioned, I decided to study what this change would mean for competition.

Looking at this from an unbiased perspective, what will we see in terms of competitive matches? I’ve updated my analysis to include the 2014 season.

I broke my analysis into three areas of study:

1. What quality will we see from the seventh seed? What will the new 2/7 matchup look like?

2. How will this change playoff contention going into week 17? How many teams will have locked up playoff berths, and how many teams will be in contention?

3. How will this affect the number of teams that are locked into playoff tiers going into week 17? These teams have incentive to rest star players and run vanilla game plans in week 17.

The scope of the study is the last 13 seasons. Houston was added to the NFL 13 years ago, and with it came the modern format of eight divisions of four teams, with four division winners and two wild cards per conference.

The Seventh Seed

The average seventh seed has a record of 9.12-6.88. Of the 26 teams that would have been granted playoff berths over the last 13 seasons, one (New England in 2008) had an 11-5 record, seven were 10-6, twelve were 9-7 and six were 8-8.

The 2014 season, where Houston (9-7) and Philadelphia (10-6) would have been added, is typical. While it’s possible that a 7-9 wild-card team could reach the playoffs under this format, it’s as unlikely as an 11-5 New England team in 2008 missing the playoffs. Maybe even a little more rare.

Since we’ve had a 7-9 division winner in the playoffs recently (Seattle in 2010) and a 7-8-1 division winner last season (Carolina), it’s hard to make an argument that the seventh seed will fundamentally change the quality of playoff teams. In fact, both of those seven-win teams won a game before bowing out in the divisional round.

The average second seed over the last 13 seasons has a record of 12.08-3.88-0.04. These games, then, would, on average, feature a team visiting an opponent with three more wins.

Columns I’ve read have dismissed the chances of a road team with a three-plus game win deficit as immaterial. So I looked at all the playoff matchups over the last 13 seasons where a team visited a higher seed with three (or more) more wins.

Usually, these are not wild-card games. Only three of the 33 playoff games in this category were wild-card games.

That’s because only the third- and fourth-best division winners are playing wild-card games. The top seed was the host 20 times. The second seed was the host nine times (and the visitor once) and the third seed was the host three times (and the visitor twice) The results were a little surprising.

Six wins difference: Home Team 0, Visiting Team 1 (New York Giants at Green Bay, 2011 season).
Five wins difference: Home Team 8, Visiting Team 0.
Four wins difference: Home Team 4, Visiting Team 2.
Three wins difference: Home Team 9, Visiting Team 9 (2-1 when it’s a 3/6 matchup).

That’s not a misprint. The columnists are likely wrong; these 2/7 matchups are not trivial by any stretch of the imagination. Some have theorized that a bye week might be a disadvantage, but no analysis has confirmed this theory. In fact, regular-season bye weeks give teams a significant advantage, according to an ESPN report last year (http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/9748736/qbs-home-d-sts-road-show-most-improvement-coming-bye-weeks).

The numbers show fairly clearly that we will have to get used to the occasional seven-seed beating a two-seed. I’m sure coaches will take these games quite seriously. And fans will have to adjust to these upsets.

Playoff Contention

To look at how the change would affect playoff contention, I analyzed the standings going into week 17 of the last 13 seasons. I divided teams into three categories: playoff berth secured, still in contention and eliminated. I made this analysis both for two wild cards and three wild cards in each conference (to do this, I made a slight change to my standings analysis tool – these results are based on the NFL’s playoff tie-breaker algorithm. I see no reason to believe tie-breaking will change if another wild-card team is added.

Secured Berths

Current System: 114 out of 156 berths secured going into week 17 (3.23 berths in contention per season).
Proposed System: 133 out of 182 berths secured going into week 17 (3.77 berths in contention per season).

The argument that this will open up more available playoff berths in week 17 is convincing.

In Contention

Current System: 100 teams competing for 42 open berths going into week 17 (7.69 teams per season with their fates on the line).
Proposed System: 105 teams competing for 49 open berths going into week 17 (8.08 teams per season with their fates on the line).

The argument that more teams will be fighting for their playoff lives in week 17 is a little harder to make. The additional teams at the bottom fighting for their lives are essentially replacing teams with better records that would be fighting for their lives.

I took a longer look at the 23 teams that would have had a chance to reach the playoffs going into week 17 with the new system. These 23 teams were eliminated from the playoffs under the current system.

So that’s almost two teams every year that would still be alive going into week 17. Their records after 16 weeks:

9-6: two teams.
8-7: seven teams.
7-8: twelve teams.
6-9: two teams.

Average Wins: 7.39

When we look at the teams that we would add to the mix with this change, these teams are, by and large, 7-8 more often than not. Now they would, most likely, finish 8-8 and be quite dangerous in the playoffs if they somehow made it. But when we talk about increased competitive opportunity, these are the teams we’re talking about.

Locked into Tiers

One factor that always throws a wrench into week 17 is the teams that have locked up a bye, or can’t improve their playoff position. These teams often play it safe in week 17, creating bad games. The notable exception to this rule is the 2007 New York Giants, who had locked up a wild card spot, couldn’t win their division, and decided to play all-out against New England in week 17, losing a close game. Tom Coughlin was raked over the coals. Coughlin, as we remember, had the last laugh, ruining New England’s attempt to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history a few weeks later.

Most of the time, however, locked teams play it safe. The proposed change would create very different playoff tiers.

Current System: 67 locked teams (5.15 per season).
Proposed System: 82 locked teams (6.31 per season).

The proposal increases the teams in contention for the playoffs, but also increases the number of teams locked into tiers by about one per season.

Conclusion

I have a hard time saying one system is better than another when it comes to competition. The proposal would give a couple of new 7-8 teams, on average, something to play for in week 17. There would be 0.5, on average, more playoff berths in contention going into the final week.

It would also increase the number of teams locked into playoff tiers by more than one. Those games are often quite distracting in week 17. In 2013, we had two such games. Kansas City, locked into position five, showed us a future with Chase Daniel at quarterback. Denver, which had secured a bye, played hard as the first seed was on the line.

Perhaps I overestimated the number of locks in the current system, as I didn’t differentiate between 1 and 2 (these would be separated by tier in the proposed system).

This past year, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and New England were all locked into playoff tiers. Backup Matt Hasselback led the Colts over Tennessee. New England showed off Jimmy Garoppolo as the Patriots sacrificed a game to Buffalo, which would have been fighting for a seven-seed under the new system. In the NFC, Philadelphia would have already locked up the seven-seed in week 16.

Either way, the numbers aren’t convincing. I don’t think the proposal either adds or detracts from competitiveness late in the season.

An argument against the proposal is tradition. We have had 25 seasons with the 12-team playoff format. We’re used to a balance of 38% of the teams in the NFL reaching the playoffs. Would it detract from the regular season to increase that number to 44%, an all-time NFL high? Why alter a balance that’s seen the NFL grow as successfully as it has? Does the NFL want to risk going the same route as the NHL, which has such a long, thorough playoff system that many people won’t tune in until the playoffs begin?

A 16-game season is not enough to accurately seed teams. So much is dependent on the schedule. We’ve seen wonderfully competitive Super Bowls over the last 13 seasons – some between teams with very different records.

I don’t see anything that indicates that adding a seventh seed will spoil the overall competitiveness of the playoffs. In fact, I’d expect those seventh seeds to win about 1/3 of their games.

So the question here probably boils down to credibility and balance. Is the possible angst over the success of 9-7 seventh seeds and the inclusion of 7-8 teams in important week 17 games worth the extra revenue those two new playoff games will bring? Will this reduction of the importance of the regular season outweigh that revenue?

The NFL Scouting Combine and Wide Receivers

In my analysis, I focus mostly on the role of the quarterback. But football is a team sport and quarterback performance can’t easily be separated from the roles of other players. Is the offensive line giving the quarterback time to throw? Is there a running game that forces defenses out of nickel personnel? And is there enough talent at wide receiver to catch the quarterback’s passes?

Bill Belichick, easily the most accomplished head coach in the Cap Era, struggles mightily with wide receivers. If you look at Patriot drafts, they’re littered with receiver busts. For every Julian Edelman at the end of the draft, there are two Chad Jacksons and a Bethel Johnson near the beginning. And he’s hardly alone.

The Detroit Lions had one of the all-time bad number-two overall picks with Charles Rogers in 2003. The following year, it was Roy Williams at number seven, who was a little more effective, but hardly worth the pick. In 2005, they doubled down with Mike Williams at number ten, who did pretty much nothing in his first four years. Undaunted, they struck gold at number two in 2007 with Calvin Johnson.

With other teams, it’s not so dramatic. I’ve tracked wide receivers chosen in the last 16 years, and there have been 25 chosen in the top ten. I’d be generous if I said half of those picks were worth it. In general, about 40-50% of wide receivers picked in the first round become effective starters. That drops to about one third in the second round, so it’s not like teams have no idea what they’re doing in the draft room. It’s just difficult to find good receivers.

How do you even define good? Someone has to take the field, even if a team doesn’t have anyone on the roster worth a darn.

I decided to study the issue. Since every team needs at least a couple of effective wide receivers, what should they look for? Analytics is the buzz word of 2015. Technically, it’s the art of finding meaningful patterns in seemingly random data.

In the NFL, you build through the draft. The annual Scouting Combine gives teams an opportunity to collect data on these players. They use that data, along with interviews and a lot of tape-watching to come up with their best guesses on players worth drafting. And they still miss a lot of the time.

I tried to put together a full list of Combine (and some Pro Day) performances for wide receivers over the 1999-2015 time period. I have heights and weights along with 40-yard-dash times for everyone. Where I could find them, I included vertical jumps, broad jumps, the 20-yard shuttle drill and the three-cone drill. I even have some bench presses thrown in there, and hand size for the last few years.

I would love to have some objective way to measure the Gauntlet drill, or at least a lot of tape I can watch myself and maybe come up with a metric. I’m a big believer in the Gauntlet. In this drill a receiver runs from sideline to sideline, alternating taking passes thrown from his left and from his right. It’s a timing drill, and players need to get into a rhythm. But it’s also a test of hands and a mental test that I think is quite relevant to running routes. I score players not only on whether they can show decent speed getting into their rhythm and making clean catches, but also how much they “cheat” in the drill by slowing down or running on curves so they can gain a tiny advantage in turning to the next throw. Run straight, quickly, don’t drop any balls and you “pass” the drill. It’s very tempting to cheat, but the players who take the Combine seriously do their best not to cheat. And I think challenging yourself by following the instructions is an important mental test in this day and age when agents prepare athletes so thoroughly to answer questions in interviews.

Alas, it’s not easy to find tape from old Combines. So I ran what numbers I could, and now I understand a little better why teams have so much trouble drafting wide receivers.

The best I can do with size and Combine performance is explain maybe (if I work a little harder) one quarter of a player’s potential. That’s lousy.

By far the most important number is a player’s time in the 40-yard dash. Even though they’re running without pads, and Jerry Rice has certainly taught us that raw straight-line speed is not a requirement for NFL success, the 40-time is deservingly the Combine headliner. I found the vertical jump was about half as valuable – more for long-term success than instant success. I found the broad jump was just a little less valuable, but more important for younger players. The three-cone drill had small significance. The shuttle run and the bench press were completely irrelevant.

On the pure size side of the equation, I shocked myself a little. I found weight was maybe a little more important than the broad jump. Receivers need some bulk to get past press coverage – that makes sense. But height was insignificant – correlating to success at maybe 1-2%. In fact, when you consider that weight already includes height (they correlate with each other at 71%) and many really short receivers show up as not having done well simply because they were drafted exclusively to return kicks, I don’t see the value of considering height in any way when I look at a wide receiver.

If nothing else in this study comes back to Front Office Football, that probably will. It makes sense to say that height gives a receiver that added oomph when going up for a competitive ball (as Calvin Johnson so often does), but that’s not a universal experience.

I played with the numbers for a while and came up with a “Combine Score”. That tells me that Donte Moncrief, chosen by Indianapolis in the third round last year, is the best receiver from that draft. So far, he has definitely been worth the pick. But, on the other end of the scale, this metric suggests Jarvis Landry, selected by Miami toward the end of the second round, would be useless. And he had a stronger rookie season than Moncrief.

I come away from this exercise realizing I have a lot more work to do before I can execute analytics in a manner that has any use for the NFL draft. Certainly, I can add variables. I could throw in college performance, competition faced, maybe those elusive Gauntlet tapes. I think that would help. But the simple Moncrief/Landry example illustrates why this is a very difficult task.

Just for grins, the list of top 2015 draftees based on this metric:

1. Chris Conley, Georgia
2. Darren Waller, Georgia Tech
3. Sammie Coates, Auburn
4. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
5. Kevin White, West Virginia
6. Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
7. Tre McBride, Willliam & Mary
8. Kenny Bell, Nebraska
9. Ty Montgomery, Stanford
10. Antwan Goodley, Baylor
11. DeVante Parker, Louisville
12. Devin Funchess, Michigan
13. Amari Cooper, Alabama
14. Nelson Agholor, USC
15. Devin Smith, Ohio State

Of this group, White, Cooper and Parker are considered easy first-rounders. Green-Beckham, Strong, Coates, Agholor and Smith possible first-rounders. Funchess and Rashad Green (33rd) had rough Combines and their grades have dropped to rounds 2-3. And will anyone reach to grab Combine stars like McBride, Bell, Waller and Conley, who were expected to be late picks or priority free agents until last week? Oakland loves guys like that.

State of the Quarterback – Assessing the Needs

In the NFL, it’s hard to win without a good quarterback. The game has become so complex that many good quarterback prospects are completely ineffective in the pro game. NFL teams build in the draft, and if they find a good quarterback, they hold on to him. You’re not going to find a good quarterback in free agency.

What’s positive about quarterbacks is if they stay healthy, they’re decent for about 12 years on average, and the great ones for 14-15 years. The average projected starting quarterback in the NFL for 2015 already has 5 1/2 seasons of starting experience. That means an average of three starting-caliber quarterbacks need to enter the league in a given year.

Who are those three quarterbacks? Eight of the 32 current projected starters were the first pick in the entire draft. Four more went in picks 2-4, four more in picks 5-16 and another three in the bottom half of the first round. So that’s 19 of 32 in round one. Another five came in the second round (all in the first handful of picks). Add two threes, two sixes, one seven, one undrafted and two uncertain situations, and you have your set of 32 starters.

The 2015 quarterback crop is considered a shallow one, but it has two prospects – Florida State’s Jameis Winston and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota – who are considered great prospects. Winston seems prepared to step in and run an NFL offense immediately. Tampa Bay, which drafts first, will probably take him. Mariota is a little less prepared, but is a phenomenal athlete, a top-character guy, and has the skill set that suggests a short learning curve for the position. Given how many teams need quarterbacks and the importance of the position, either Tennessee, which picks second and doesn’t seem convinced of its future with last year’s sixth-rounder running the show, will take Mariota or get overwhelmed with a trade offer.

No offense to defensive end Leonard Williams, who will be an impact pass rusher and effective run defender at a position where many teams get very little rush, but the quarterback position is worth too much.

There are analysts out there who can break down tape far better than I can. They will write a lot about the quarterbacks between now and May, and it’s usually a good read. But the position is hard to break down and the bust rate of top picks is very high. In my own analysis, I take what others write and form opinions based on what has happened in past drafts and past NFL seasons. From that, I expect Winston and Mariota to go 1-2. They seem like relatively solid picks.

What happens next? There are maybe a dozen other quarterbacks who might be worth drafting. None of them carry a first-round grade. Could one be the next Tom Brady? Of course. And any GM is lying to you if he tells you he doesn’t dream of watching some tape with his coaches and seeing Tom Brady in some guy who’s flying under everyone else’s radar.

Problem is, out of the dozens of guys who have been drafted as project quarterbacks, very few ever show enough to start, and maybe once or twice a decade, you find a franchise quarterback in the later rounds. Brady and Tony Romo (who was actually undrafted) are the only two current examples – Brady will be 38 this season, Romo 35. Scouting quarterbacks, as difficult as it is, has improved in recent years, and the numbers show that a higher percentage of starting quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than in past years.

That’s why the quarterback draft curve is so unusual compared to that of other positions. You have that initial rush, and then quarterbacks have to take a back seat to likely starters at other positions.

While about a dozen quarterbacks will be drafted, they’re all projects after Winston and Mariota. I’ll outline the ones who seem to have the buzz right now. Some team might work one of these guys out and become convinced he’s an NFL starter. It only takes one of the 32 teams to fall in love, and you get a second rounder who had a fourth-round grade.

Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson (who sounds like he’s a part of that ridiculous ABC nighttime soap where the girl from Everwood becomes a ninja warrior) heads the list of quarterbacks who someone might fall in love with and take out that second-round lottery ticket. Grayson has pro-style experience, which is quite important because it means he’ll have less to learn in the NFL. There’s more relevant tape to watch on him, so scouting will be more accurate. Grayson didn’t work out at the Combine because of a minor injury, but he has NFL size.

UCLA’s Brett Hundley is a phenomenal athlete who also might get a reach into the second round. The question on Hundley is whether he can read defenses. He also played in a spread offense that doesn’t translate well to the NFL. Definite boom or bust here.

Baylor’s Bryce Petty put up magic numbers in a spread offense. He’s also has NFL size, good athleticism, and a strong arm. He has accuracy issues, however.

Southeastern Louisiana’s Bryan Bennett was once Mariota’s backup at Oregon. He has enough size and athleticism to play in the NFL and he has a very impressive arm. He’s probably a little more likely than Petty to make a huge jump up someone’s draft board.

Oregon State’s Sean Mannion is tall and an accurate thrower, but he’s not as good an athlete as the other prospects, and he has tiny hands.

My guess is that these five are very likely to be on NFL rosters in 2015. One of the five will probably get some starts somewhere.

Other names include ECU’s Shane Carden and Prairie View A&M’s Jerry Lovelocke. You might hear these names toward the end of the draft, but each is probably only 50/50 to make it through training camp this summer.

Next, I’ll divide NFL teams into their need to draft a quarterback.

Category 1: Desperate need – would start a rookie even if the rookie wasn’t fully ready.

Tampa Bay (drafting 1st overall), New York Jets (6th).

Category 2: Very strong need – maybe some desperation this year and probably looking for a new quarterback. A starter in place, but might start a rookie even if the rookie wasn’t fully ready.

Tennessee (2nd), Chicago (7th)*, Buffalo (50th – the 19th went to Cleveland as part of the deal that allowed the Bills to draft Sammy Watkins last year).

Category 3: Strong need – some urgency to get a promising rookie on the roster. He wouldn’t start unless he was ready, but he’d probably be on the clock. To point out the obvious – Cleveland’s two firsts and second have the approximate combined chart value of Tennessee’s #2 pick… just sayin’. They might still be sold on Johnny Football ™.

St. Louis (10th)*, Cleveland (12th and 19th), Houston (16th), Philadelphia (20th).

Category 4: Definite need – these teams need to get a good prospect into the system. Any team in this category or higher could spend a second-round pick on someone who isn’t worth a second-round pick. These teams could mortgage the future to trade with Tennessee if they’re convinced about Mariota.

Washington (5th)*, New Orleans (13th), Miami (14th), San Francisco (15th), Detroit (23rd)*.

Category 5: Some need – these teams would have some interest in developing a late-round pick, probably just as a backup, but they won’t reach for a guy.

Atlanta (8th), Kansas City (18th), Carolina (25th), Dallas (27th)**, Denver (28th), Indianapolis (29th), Green Bay (30th), New England (32nd).

Category 6: Little need – these teams have an established starter and youth already at the position. They might take a late-round development pick, but not if there’s a more important need at another position.

Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New York Giants, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle.

* – indicates teams where the current starter is on shaky ground, but he was a very high pick and will likely have the opportunity to make his coach fall in love again. Chicago is truly a unique case even here. Jay Cutler’s career is one of the strangest in NFL history.

** – Jerry Jones makes Jay Cutler look normal by comparison. Who knows what he’ll want to do?

State of the Quarterback – NFC West

This is the last of eight posts assessing the quarterback situation for NFL teams entering 2015. Analysis is based on my quarterback metric, a score I’ve been using for several years to compare quarterbacks over the course of an entire career.

The average score for a quarterback in 2014 was 51. To qualify for a season score, a quarterback must have at least eight pass attempts in six different games during a season. Thirty-nine different quarterbacks reached that threshold in 2014.

For each quarterback mentioned, the numbers in parentheses indicate their scores from the last three seasons, beginning with 2014. A dash indicates no score for that season. An x indicates the player was not yet in the league. Ages are a quarterback’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Arizona: The Cardinals have settled on Carson Palmer (54, 51, 50), who hasn’t been the same since a serious elbow injury seven years ago that cost him most of a season. He’s 35, and is just good enough to keep his job, despite having a losing career record (69-73). He seemed like a world-beater before the injury. He is now coming off another shortened season and major knee surgery, though he says he’s progressing ahead of schedule and will play in training camp. Drew Stanton (42, -, -) is the backup, and has more career interceptions than touchdowns in limited play since being a second round pick in 2007. Last year’s fourth-round pick, Logan Thomas, is huge and a terrific athlete, but needs a lot of work to develop. The Cardinals have had double-digit wins the last two years, but they don’t have an ideal quarterback situation. If they don’t start out quickly, it may be time to see if Thomas has something.

Seattle: Russell Wilson (61, 59, 56) has put up unprecedented numbers for a quarterback just three years removed from college. He’s the perfect quarterback for the Seahawks – he doesn’t throw many interceptions (though he does have a problem with fumbles – not quite a Robert Griffin III problem, but still a problem). His yards per catch is best in the league. He’s due for a huge contract extension. However, part of this is Seattle’s approach. Wilson throws fewer passes per game than anyone in the NFL. So he often throws when teams are hedging against the run. He runs a lot himself, so injuries could be a concern down the road. And Marshawn Lynch is also around to punish defenses. Not to take away too much from someone who has accomplished so much already, I hesitate to put him in the elite category.

San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick (49, 52, 62) has steadily declined as a starter. Like Wilson, he averages under 30 pass attempts per game, and his yards per catch is second to Wilson’s. His interception rate is lower than Wilson’s. He has been to a Super Bowl, and has a 29-16 record. The main differences between Kaepernick and Wilson are that Kaepernick has more games when he’s off-target for long periods of time and he throws far fewer touchdown passes. Since he doesn’t throw a lot, those bad games have quite an impact. It’s not time to panic about Kaepernick, but he needs to improve this season. The 49ers will probably draft a project quarterback this season.

St. Louis: Sam Bradford (-, 49, 48) is only 27, but he hasn’t played since October 2013 due to injuries. He is 18-30 over his career with a 45 average in the metric. These aren’t impressive numbers in the slightest, and if he weren’t once the top pick in the draft, his job would be in serious danger. Austin Davis (48, -, -), undrafted in 2012, was the starter much of last season. But he was benched for Shaun Hill (49, -, -) later in the season. Hill, 35, is a free agent, and has proven a capable backup over his career. Still, that Davis was benched at all is an indication that the Rams expect Bradford to reclaim his job. Bradford probably deserves one more long look, but I’m not confident he’s more than a marginal NFL starter.

State of the Quarterback – NFC South

This is the seventh of eight posts assessing the quarterback situation for NFL teams entering 2015. Analysis is based on my quarterback metric, a score I’ve been using for several years to compare quarterbacks over the course of an entire career.

The average score for a quarterback in 2014 was 51. To qualify for a season score, a quarterback must have at least eight pass attempts in six different games during a season. Thirty-nine different quarterbacks reached that threshold in 2014.

For each quarterback mentioned, the numbers in parentheses indicate their scores from the last three seasons, beginning with 2014. A dash indicates no score for that season. An x indicates the player was not yet in the league. Ages are a quarterback’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Atlanta: Matt Ryan (57, 55, 65) will be 30 this coming season and has consistently provided quality leadership for the Falcons. There’s no reason to consider a switch – Atlanta has many other problems far more important and a new head coach fully focused on the defense.

Carolina: The Panthers selected Cam Newton with the first pick in the 2011 draft (44, 53, 54) and until this season, it looked like a solid choice. Nine of his last 13 game scores in 2014, including both playoff games, were 40 or under. He had a 19/15 TD/Int ratio over that stretch, and his yards per attempt were almost a full yard under his career average. He did suffer two fractures in his back in a December car crash, ankle surgery last March, and possibly a broken rib during the preseason. This could easily explain the performance issues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to form in 2015. Derek Anderson, 32, was outstanding in relief when he was needed, but his career metric average of 42 is indication he should remain a backup.

New Orleans: The only thing the Saints need to know about Drew Brees (61, 63, 59) is his age (36). While he’s still a top five quarterback, he’s at the age where decline can happen any year. His completion percentage, 66.3%, is the best all-time.

Tampa Bay: Last year’s free agent acquisition, Josh McCown (37, 67, -), was cut after an awful season. Mike Glennon (45, 45, x) remains a project, and is 4-14 with a remarkably low career yards per pass attempt (6.51). By comparison, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (8.15) is the best of all time. The Buccaneers draft first in May. They will probably take Jameis Winston. They should. Winston has some personal issues, but they aren’t the type of issues that affect his leadership qualities or his work ethic. He has all the physical tools necessary for success in the NFL.

State of the Quarterback – NFC North

This is the sixth of eight posts assessing the quarterback situation for NFL teams entering 2015. Analysis is based on my quarterback metric, a score I’ve been using for several years to compare quarterbacks over the course of an entire career.

The average score for a quarterback in 2014 was 51. To qualify for a season score, a quarterback must have at least eight pass attempts in six different games during a season. Thirty-nine different quarterbacks reached that threshold in 2014.

For each quarterback mentioned, the numbers in parentheses indicate their scores from the last three seasons, beginning with 2014. A dash indicates no score for that season. An x indicates the player was not yet in the league. Ages are a quarterback’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Chicago: The deadline is coming for John Fox and the Bears. They’re already on the hook for Jay Cutler’s (48, 51, 48) massive salary for 2015. If he remains on the roster another three weeks, most of his 2016 salary becomes guaranteed. So do they stick with the physically talented 32-year-old who has never lived up to that promise? Or do they cut ties with the guy who has been consistently mediocre in the six years since he was involved in perhaps the biggest NFL trade of the cap era? Maybe the clock has run out on Cutler. The Bears have given him excellent receivers and Matt Forte is one of the elite running backs in the NFL. Cutler tantalizes by making some throws that very few would even attempt. But he also throws a lot of interceptions and his completion percentage is just average. If he were a third-year guy, no question he’d still start. But how do you upgrade from average in the NFL? David Fales, a sixth-rounder from last year, is also on the roster, but this was just a lottery pick and the Bears turned to Jimmy Clausen (now a free agent) when Cutler was temporarily benched. Fox must have some ideas, or he wouldn’t have taken a job most coaches with options would have avoided because of the Cutler situation. Could the Bears overwhelm Tennessee with a trade offer to move from seventh to second in the draft? We’ll know a lot more on March 12.

Detroit: Matthew Stafford (49, 47, 48) is 27, and is the only quarterback in NFL history to average more than 40 pass attempts per start with any significant starting experience. Much of NFL defense is deciding what to try and stop. With Detroit, you focus on the pass. So the question with the Lions isn’t whether Stafford is currently the best option, it’s how much better than average Stafford would be if only the Lions could run the ball. And that is hard to determine. They have the best receiver in football, but opponents double-team him like clockwork. Detroit has to run the ball more in 2015 – that much is a given. Then they can better evaluate whether it’s time to develop a potential replacement.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers (63, 63, 64) is 31, and the best player in the NFL. All the Packers have to do is ensure he stays healthy.

Minnesota: The Vikings took Teddy Bridgewater (52, x, x) at the end of the first round last year, and he was starting in week four. Despite a host of analysis issues that led to Bridgewater’s draft stock plummeting during the last off-season, he’s done nothing but impress on the field, though he has to cut down on his interceptions. Score one for relatively short, small-handed rookie quarterbacks. Matt Cassel (-, 48, 38) is the primary backup and is best suited for that role.

State of the Quarterback – NFC East

This is the fifth of eight posts assessing the quarterback situation for NFL teams entering 2015. Analysis is based on my quarterback metric, a score I’ve been using for several years to compare quarterbacks over the course of an entire career.

The average score for a quarterback in 2014 was 51. To qualify for a season score, a quarterback must have at least eight pass attempts in six different games during a season. Thirty-nine different quarterbacks reached that threshold in 2014.

For each quarterback mentioned, the numbers in parentheses indicate their scores from the last three seasons, beginning with 2014. A dash indicates no score for that season. An x indicates the player was not yet in the league. Ages are a quarterback’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Dallas: When people think of Tony Romo (68, 54, 59), they think of Romo fumbling the long snap for an easy field-goal attempt in his first season as a starter eight years ago. And they think of a guy who has never played in a Super Bowl. And they think of a guy who wasn’t drafted and isn’t physically imposing, but magically took over the starting role with the full confidence of an owner people love to hate. Romo’s an easy target, but when you look at the numbers, he’s top five in the NFL easily. The question is whether he falls to putty in key games. This season – scores of 64 and 79 in the playoffs – he put that ball right on Dez Bryant’s hands when it counted. He scored a 65 and a 38 in the 2009 playoffs. The Cowboys have had some key losses at the ends of seasons. At 35, he’s at the latter end of his prime, and time is running out. Dallas is still in good shape with Romo. Brandon Weeden (-, 38, 44) is a below-average backup. Dustin Vaughan, a rookie last year, has tiny hands and not much upside.

New York Giants: In the division of the embattled quarterback, two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning (55, 41, 52) is either loved or hated. Like Joe Flacco, he rebounded from a miserable 2013, though not quite as much. He throws too many interceptions for a team that doesn’t ask as much from him as many teams. But he’s 99-78 in the NFL, comes from royalty, and he’s durable, calm and competent. He’s 34, so it’s not time to think about his replacement just yet. Backup Ryan Nassib is intriguing, but because of Manning’s durability, not much has been seen.

Philadelphia: Chip Kelly is the coach, but his quick-hitting, lead-the-league in offensive and defensive snaps, run from any angle and score from any distance mentality makes him more a name than any plain-clothes NFL guy this side of Mr. Hoodie. He made good use of Mark Sanchez (52, -. 39) in 2014, but Sanchez is a free agent who might actually get a new opportunity somewhere because of Kelly’s magic. Nick Foles (46, 67, 44) was injured when the Eagles were 5-2. For the first time in his career, he struggled with interceptions where in 2013 he excelled in playing mistake-free. Is Foles, a 6-6 third-rounder from 2012, the answer? No one’s certain. Kelly surely is tempted to mortgage the future to trade up to take his former college quarterback, Marcus Mariota. In the movies, it would be a done deal. In real life, shall we revisit Herschel Walker? Matt Barkley has starting potential as a backup, but didn’t fare well in his two games as a reliever in 2013, throwing lots of interceptions.

Washington: As embattled as Romo and Manning have been, the harsh gazes of angry fans are hottest when it comes to Washington’s Robert Griffin III (54, 45, 58). Part of the problem is that Griffin is 25, but played magnificently as a rookie. He brought a bad team into the playoffs. Expectations were through the roof. As he ages and the injuries are starting to take a toll, his running ability is less of a threat. The Redskins have just seven wins in their last two seasons, and Griffin is starting to get criticism for his preparation. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but for a quarterback who can run, the Redskins are not a good red-zone threat. So the most popular guy in town is backup Kirk Cousins (54, -. -), who looked okay early this past season, but has the highest career interception percentage (4.6) of any quarterback with a season’s worth of experience on an NFL roster. He might not remain popular for long if he gets the call. The Redskins need to see what they have in Griffin, and find a coach who can get the best out of him.