NFL Week 17 Playoff and Draft Order Update

I wanted to share my guide to week 17 and team playoff chances and the projected draft order for 2018.

First, the playoff chart. This has sections for game results and how result combinations translate to playoff seeding. Since there have been no ties this season, it’s fairly easy to slot a team that ties a game. A chart is also provided showing how all potential two-team tie-breakers would be resolved. An “o” in a field means there’s no way the teams can tie for a division or wild card spot. An “x” means the team loses the tie-breaker if the teams wind up with the same overall record. Anything else explains which tie-breaker the team would win, starting with Head-to-Head.

I’ve bolded the expected result combinations. I’m not predicting anything crazy here. The only reversal from a standard prediction based on power rating and home field is that I expect Jacksonville to lose at Tennessee, given that Jacksonville is locked into the 3-seed, Tennessee has more on the line (clinching if it wins) and the two teams may well end up playing each other the following week as wild cards.

Playoff Chart

The second chart is the projected 2018 Amateur Draft order. Houston’s pick belongs to Cleveland. This chart shows the first 20 picks. Slots 21-32 are partially determined by how far a team goes in the playoffs. I’ve put an “x” where I expect a team to pick. A red background shows the range where a team can pick if it loses Sunday. Green shows range where a team can pick if it wins on Sunday. And a blue background shows a pick that’s possible, win or lose. I am projecting two ties in the draft order, which would be resolved by coin flips during the annual Combine.

Again, no fancy predictions went into this. In addition to Tennessee beating Jacksonville, I considered picking Dallas to beat Philadelphia, but didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Francisco beats the Rams, either.

Draft Chart

Author: Jim Gindin

Founder and Lead Developer, Solecismic Software