Playoff Probabilities

My Standings Simulator (which you can find on Amazon for free) is something I enjoy running from time to time. It uses my ratings system to simulate the rest of the NFL schedule and provides each team’s odds of reaching the playoffs, winning its division, getting a first-round bye.

I’ve added the simulator to FOF8. I think that will add another touch of immersion to the Front Office Football experience. And since PC CPUs tend to be a lot faster than Android-based devices, you can run a longer simulation.

Based on week 8, here are the current playoff chances for each NFL team:

Reach Playoffs, AFC:

New England 99%+, Denver 90%, Kansas City 84%, Oakland 82%, Pittsburgh 79%, Houston 75%, Tennessee 35%, Cincinnati 16%, Buffalo 13%, Baltimore 10%, San Diego 8%, Miami 5%, Indianapolis 2%, New York Jets 1%, Jacksonville 0%+, Cleveland 0 (while still technically alive, the Browns reached the playoffs in none of the 10,000 iterations through the schedule).

First-Round Bye, AFC:

New England 98%, Denver 39%, Kansas City 27%, Oakland 19%, Pittsburgh 9%, Houston 6%, Tennessee 2%, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Baltimore, San Diego, Miami, Indianapolis 0%+.

Reach Playoffs, NFC:

Dallas 98%, Atlanta 96%, Minnesota 95%, Seattle 87%, Philadelphia 61%, New York Giants 45%, Washington 32%, Green Bay 31%, Detroit 18%, Arizona 15%, New Orleans 12%, Los Angeles 5%, Tampa Bay 3%, Carolina, Chicago, San Francisco 0%+.

First-Round Bye, NFC:

Dallas 70%, Minnesota 57%, Atlanta 42%, Seattle 15%, Philadelphia 8%, New York Giants 4%, Green Bay 2%, Washington, Detroit, New Orleans 1%, Arizona, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay 0%+.

The application also calculates the most important games remaining on a team’s schedule. I didn’t incorporate this feature in FOF8. But it’s an interesting concept. For instance, Green Bay’s most important remaining game is in week 12 at Philadelphia. If the Packers win, they have a 55% chance of reaching the playoffs. If they lose, only a 23% chance.

Author: Jim Gindin

Founder and Lead Developer, Solecismic Software