Football Frontier

When evaluating quarterbacks, I often use the following statistics, and try and cover as much of a time period as possible, since players only have 16-17 games in a season and that means sample sizes are often uncomfortably low.

A combination of yards per pass attempt, yards per completion and completion percentage. This gives me a good picture of both what the quarterback is trying to do and a general idea of how successful he is at doing it. Yards per attempt acts as somewhat of an average between the other two, so if a quarterback ranks high in completion percentage and low in yards per completion, you might suspect a conservative game plan or too many checkdowns. If it’s the reverse, then the quarterback is testing the defense downfield more than his peers, which might excuse a slightly higher interception percentage.

I check running percentage – scrambles and designed runs divided by runs plus sacks plus pass attempts (kneel-downs are eliminated from the database). A quarterback who runs more than others tends to have a different development curve and a shorter career. Running quarterbacks almost always have high yards per completion as well. If they can do this and maintain a relatively low interception percentage, you can see just how difficult it is to prepare a defense against them.

The gold standard in quarterback evaluation is interception percentage. Turnovers affect the game in ways that nothing else can. A quarterback can be a star in every possible metric, but if he throws too many picks, he’s hurting his team. This is why Jameis Winston and Jimmy Garoppolo aren’t making $40 million a year.

The final statistic I use, and offers a great quick-and-dirty ranking of quarterbacks, is yards per attempted pass, including sacks. That, in combination with interception percentage, probably tells you all you need to know to give a thumbs up or a thumbs down on a quarterback.

The following chart shows all current NFL quarterbacks who might be considered starters or possible starters (except rookies) this year, as well as notable recent quarterbacks from the 1998-2022 period.

You might notice that some stars from the recent pass have more interceptions and more yards per completion than you’d expect in today’s game. The next chart shows a bit of the recent evolution of the NFL and will help put some of those numbers in better context (for instance, Drew Brees was exceptional in avoiding interceptions, though his career total seems high by today’s standards).

Finally, when evaluating younger quarterbacks, how much time do you allow for development? High-run quarterbacks generally look their best around year two. They’re better out of the gate and they develop quickly. However, their careers don’t last as long, and as they accumulate hits, their game can suffer a bit because they can’t run as much or perhaps have other injuries. Most quarterbacks are where they’re going to be around the end of year three. Some have extremely rough rookie years. Occasionally, and Eli Manning is the most extreme case I’ve seen, they don’t come anywhere near peak performance until six years in the league. But no one would give a quarterback that much time to develop – he was an average starter long before that. Very occasionally, you get a Patrick Mahomes, who is fantastic as soon as he gets into a game. But that cannot be expected, and he might be a generational player.

I’ve included some detail about a very familiar quarterback. You’ll see that early in his career, Tom Brady was more a game manager, kept improving, and in his fourth season as a starter, reached star status and was no longer considered just Bill Belichick’s on-the-field manager. This development curve is more the norm for low-run quarterbacks, but the still-playing-at-45, and not that badly, is unique in football’s history.

On the left side is his cumulative career total, and on the right side, his year-by-year statistics. You see why New England was concerned he finally wore down in 2019. Only to win the Super Bowl MVP Award the following year in Tampa Bay.

A quick look at quarterbacks from the 2022 draft class:

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh, 1st round (20th overall), Pitt: Very strong preseason with the Steelers. Free agent Mitch Trubisky also had a very strong preseason, leaving a healthy battle for the starting role. Trubisky should get the first look, but I would be surprised if Pickett isn’t the starter soon.

Desmond Ritter, Atlanta, 3rd round (74th overall), Cincinnati: Strong preseason with the Falcons, getting a long look and cementing his role as primary backup to free agent Marcus Mariota entering the season. I’d also be surprised if Ritter isn’t starting soon, though he doesn’t have as strong as skill set as Pickett.

Malik Willis, Tennessee, 3rd round (86th overall), Liberty: Willis was a little more up and down, taking the first-team snaps during the preseason. Ryan Tannehill remained on the sidelines. He’s more established as the starter, but Willis is likely the future and will be the primary backup this season. If Tannehill is hurt or starts slowly, Willis will play.

Matt Corral, Carolina, 3rd round (94th overall), Mississippi: Corral suffered a serious foot injury during the preseason and is likely out for the season. With a crowded quarterback room, Corral was fourth on the depth chart, but the only quarterback signed past 2022. This is obviously bad news for the Panthers, who would have liked to get a long look at Corral as a protected backup in practice this season.

Bailey Zappe, New England, 4th round (137th overall), Western Kentucky: Zappe struggled as the third quarterback during the preseason, and is expected to spend the season developing, while protected and inactive on the roster. New England has a pattern of developing these mid-round picks as quarterbacks for other teams while using them as backups. It seems unlikely he will see the field this season.

Sam Howell, Washington, 5th round (144th overall), North Carolina: Howell was up and down, but showed some promise, getting a long look in the preseason. He will be protected on the roster as a backup, and has a chance of becoming primary backup behind Carson Wentz.

Chris Oladokun, Pittsburgh, 7th round (241st overall), South Dakota State: Did not impress enough to see the field during the preseason, was released during the final cut and is now on the Kansas City practice squad.

Skylar Thompson, Miami, 7th round (247th overall), Kansas State: Thompson was very impressive against backups during the preseason and will be protected as the third quarterback on the 53-man roster. He’s unlikely to be active for games.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco, 7th round (262nd overall), Iowa State: Mr. Irrelevant was just OK against backups during the preseason, and that was enough to keep him over Nate Sudfeld as the third quarterback, protected on the roster. Sudfeld was supposed to be the primary backup to Trey Lance, but the 49ers were unable to get a trade offer for Jimmy Garappolo while playing hardball with him (even refusing to give him the team’s playbook). The hardball worked, as Garappolo couldn’t showcase his recovery from injury and chose a high-salary backup position over outright release when it was too late to get a good free agent offer for this season. It’s a tough business. You might say a guy who took your team to the Super Bowl not that long ago deserves a little better, but this happens.

Anthony Brown, Baltimore, undrafted, Oregon: Played very well against backups to earn the third quarterback position and was signed to the practice squad.

E.J. Perry, Jacksonville, undrafted, Brown: Struggled during the preseason, as did a host of other Jaguar quarterbacks during an extended tryout that started with the Hall of Fame game. Perry was signed to the practice squad as the third quarterback, though it’s likely the Jaguars would look elsewhere before activating him.

Chase Garbers, Las Vegas, undrafted, California: Garbers played well enough in the preseason to warrant a practice squad role. The Raiders traded Nick Mullens, so there’s some confidence in his learning ability.

The following quarterbacks are currently unsigned, but often maintain some sort of relationship with the team that signed them for training camp:

Drew Plitt, Cincinnati, undrafted, Ball State: Plitt stuck with the Bengals through camp, but barely played during the preseason.

Dustin Crum, Kansas City, undrafted, Kent State: Crum saw some end-of-game work during the preseason, but didn’t show enough during camp to win an initial role on the practice squad as the Chiefs went to Oladokun instead.

Jack Coan, Indianapolis, undrafted, Notre Dame: Last year’s sixth-round pick, Sam Ehlinger, was the hit of preseason and locked down the third quarterback role. There’s still room on the practice squad for him.

Carson Strong, Philadelphia, undrafted, Nevada: Surprisingly undrafted, Strong didn’t work his way into the primary rotation during the preseason and only had a handful of snaps. With the Eagles set in the quarterback room with waiver-claim Ian Book and practice squad rival Reid Sinnett, Strong will have to catch on elsewhere.

Jarrett Guarantano, Arizona, undrafted, Washington State: Guarantano looked good in late-game work during the preseason, but long-time team favorite Trace McSorley won the practice squad job. It seems likely that Guarantano will find his way back onto the Cardinal practice squad if he hasn’t attracted attention elsewhere.

A handful of other quarterbacks from the 2022 class are likely in shape and hoping to get a look somewhere, but didn’t get that opportunity during this preseason. While it’s unlikely any will get another chance and it’s been a long time since anyone has established that first relationship after their first year, it’s still possible.

Anticipated open positions:

Detroit and Minnesota have yet to add a quarterback to the practice squad and are carrying only two on their rosters. Detroit, which just grabbed Sudfeld when the 49ers waived him, just dropped David Blough to make room, and have to wait a certain amount of time before making that second move. Minnesota was likely expecting to keep Kellen Mond, last year’s third round pick, after releasing him at the end of camp. But the Browns claimed him. Sean Mannion, fourth on their chart, decided to go to Seattle. So the Vikings will likely sign a practice squad quarterback as soon as coaches have a few seconds to evaluate what’s out there. These roles often go to players with familiarity with the team, so while there’s no urgency to grab someone now, I’m sure they want a third quarterback trying to learn the playbook even if he’s not getting practice reps. While Mond was disappointing while in a Vikings uniform, waiving him seems like a mistake on their part.

Atlanta and New Orleans have two quarterbacks on the roster, as well as a third emergency quarterback already on the roster, but playing tight end as well. The Saints just lost Ian Book to waivers, and don’t have that relationship with another quarterback. Atlanta has an entirely new quarterback room. There’s no urgent need for either team to bring in a practice squad player.

The pool:

In addition to the above undrafted players from this season, there are quite a few players with a bit more experience out there. There’s talk that Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick (2011) still want to play. Robert Griffin III (2012) is out there. Newton maintains a relationship with Carolina, and the injuries are piling up.

Among recently released quarterbacks, Tim Boyle (Detroit), Brett Hundley (Baltimore), Jake Luton (Jacksonville) and Ben DiNucci (Dallas) have at least seen an NFL field during the regular season. Several former backups/practice squad players recently played in the USFL, but none of them earned as much as a training camp look this season.

With one week left in the preseason, a quick look, by category, at the quarterback situation around the NFL:

STARTERS:

ESTABLISHED VETERAN STARTER
8+ Years in the League, Salary of at least $25 million per season.
Russell Wilson, Denver
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis
Derek Carr, Las Vegas
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee (could be in competition for starting job this season)

ESTABLISHED STARTER ON SECOND CONTRACT
4+ Years in the League, Starter Money in Franchise Contract
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland (suspended through week 12)
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Jared Goff, Detroit
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
Carson Wentz, Washington

ESTABLISHED STARTER ON ROOKIE CONTRACT
Teams here with quarterbacks who haven’t broken out (like Mills, Tagovailoa and Hurts) might well look to the top of the 2023 draft for a quarterback.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (likely to receive second contract soon)
Justin Fields, Chicago
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Davis Mills, Houston
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (could be in competition if starts slowly)
Mac Jones, New England
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (playing out rookie contract, future unknown)
Zach Wilson, New York Jets (could be battling an injury early in the season)
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Trey Lance, San Francisco

VETERAN HOLDING THE FORT
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta (already in a battle with third-round pick Desmond Ridder)
Baker Mayfield, Carolina (a good season will undoubtedly generate a big second contract, but he will be a free agent)
Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland (while Watson is suspended)
Jameis Winston, New Orleans (Veteran Andy Dalton is in place in case Winston has a slow start)
Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh (already in a battle with first-round pick Kenny Pickett)
Geno Smith, Seattle (2019 second-rounder Drew Lock could also start)

WILD CARD
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco. Trey Lance is going to start. The 49ers seem set with backups, including a 2022 seventh-rounder who will likely need protection on the 53-man roster. So what do you do with Garoppolo, whose $27 million salary becomes guaranteed next week? No one wants to trade for him. The 49ers say they’ll be happy to keep him as a backup, but it’s unusual to have four quarterbacks on the roster. Not unprecedented, just unusual. The 49ers have the league’s worst cap situation, which eases a lot without Garoppolo. If released, he’ll get offers as soon as he clears waivers. A trade seems unlikely, as long as the 49ers won’t pay a good chunk of his salary. Who bites? Houston, Seattle? Detroit and the Giants are so low on cap space they likely can’t compete.

BACKUPS:

VETERAN BACKUPS WITH SOME SUCCESS IN THE LEAGUE, TIER ONE
While these teams obviously don’t want to see their starter injured, these are the guys who you can still win with in a pinch.
Case Keenum, Buffalo
Nick Foles, Indianapolis
Teddy Bridgewater, Miami
Andy Dalton, New Orleans
Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants
Joe Flacco, New York Jets

VETERAN BACKUPS, TIER TWO
These backups have had a good amount of NFL experience, but haven’t had much success when starting. Still, they’re capable of running a team.
Colt McCoy, Arizona
Sam Darnold, Carolina
Trevor Siemian, Chicago
Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland (expected to start while Deshaun Watson is suspended)
Chad Henne, Kansas City
Brian Hoyer, New England
Blaine Gabbert, Tampa Bay

BACKUPS WITH SOME EXPERIENCE WHO MIGHT START
These backups have less experience than the long-time veterans, but still could find starting jobs in the right situation in the future.
Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia
Drew Lock, Seattle

ROOKIE BACKUPS WHO MAY WELL START IN THE NEAR FUTURE
These rookies are already in position to start in the future, and may well be the most popular players in the stadium by the end of week one.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
Malik Willis, Tennessee

BACKUPS WITH LIMITED EXPERIENCE
These veterans have seen the field in a backup role, and haven’t done that well. But they’re getting more than the minimum salary and their teams may be quite happy to have them as a primary backup.
Brandon Allen, Cincinnati
Tim Boyle, Detroit
Jordan Love, Green Bay (a unique situation – a former first-rounder who is now in his third year as a backup, which means the Packers have to decide on his big fifth-year option next spring)
Kyle Allen, Houston
C.J. Beathard, Jacksonville
Chase Daniel, Los Angeles Chargers
Nick Mullens, Minnesota
Nate Sudfeld, San Francisco
Taylor Heinicke, Washington

REMAINING PRIMARY BACKUPS
These players are making close to the minimum salary and have limited experience.
Tyler Huntley, Baltimore
Cooper Rush, Dallas
Josh Johnson, Denver (drafted all the way back in 2008 – it’s extremely unusual to stick in the league this long without much on-field experience)
Jarrett Stidham, Las Vegas (the Raiders felt comfortable enough to trade Mullens away)
John Wolford, Los Angeles Rams

THIRD STRING OF NOTE:
Matt Corral, Carolina (third-rounder from 2022, on injured reserve for the season)
Joshua Dobbs, Cleveland (primary backup with Watson out)
David Blough, Detroit (could make the Lions ahead of Boyle, or they carry three veterans)
Will Grier, Dallas (third-rounder from 2019, could push Rush out of a job)
Sam Ehlinger, Indianapolis (sixth-rounder from 2021)
Skylar Thompson, Miami (seventh rounder from 2022)
Kellen Mond, Minnesota (third-rounder from 2021 – not a good sign that the Vikings were willing to give a seventh-rounder this week for Mullens)
Bailey Zappe, New England (fourth-rounder form 2022)
Ian Book, New Orleans (fourth-rounder from 2021)
Mike White, New York Jets (paid like a primary backup)
Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh (the Steelers like to have a deep bullpen – it is possible Rudolph could get a look as a starter somewhere else at some point)
Brock Purdy, San Francisco (seventh-rounder from 2022)
Jacob Eason, Seattle (fourth-rounder from 2020)
Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay (second-rounder from 2021, perhaps the Bucs see him as Brady’s heir – Gabbert isn’t)
Sam Howell, Washington (fifth-rounder from 2022)

With the sixth pick in the 2019 Draft, the New York Giants selected Daniel Jones, heir apparent to the most prolific quarterback in franchise history, ninth all-time in passing yardage and keeper of two Pete Rozelle trophies (as Super Bowl MVP), Eli Manning. Within three games, Jones was starting for the Giants and the media did not like what it saw.

Three years later, Jones still isn’t anyone’s favorite. He had serious rookie struggles in 2019, didn’t get anything resembling a sophomore bump in 2020 and “broke out” with a slightly below-average season in 2021. He is 12-25 as a starter and the Giants haven’t been in the playoffs since 2016 and have not won a playoff game since Super Bowl XLII.

Is Jones the reason? Hard to say. With the sixth overall pick, you’re no longer looking at quarterbacks who are expected to take the league by storm. But you should get a franchise guy as often as not. Jones isn’t exactly a bust. But he plays too safe and doesn’t move the offense well. When the Giants get near the goal line, no one really has that feeling that Jones will get them across somehow.

One annual deadline that doesn’t get a lot of press is “fifth-year” day, which takes place Monday, just after the draft. What this means is any player (not just a quarterback) drafted in the first round three years ago and playing under his initial four-year contract can be signed to a guaranteed fifth year for a single-season price that’s somewhat lower than that of a franchise player. This affects two quarterbacks this year – Jones and Arizona’s Kyler Murray. The third first-round quarterback from 2019 (Dwayne Haskins) didn’t stick with his initial team and is sadly no longer with us.

Today, the Giants apparently signaled that they would not pick up that option. Since they hold the 5th and 7th picks in the first round tonight, I’m not sure why they would make this announcement until the last possible minute. I don’t pretend to know everything about how these decisions are conveyed. How do these signals work? What does the Twitterverse say? Does Elon Musk have a take? He must. He’s everywhere else.

Since the Giants have, at backup, career journeyman Tyrod Taylor, a high-run quarterback with 11 years of experience (for high-run quarterbacks, this means they’re likely at the tail end of their careers), this probably means Jones will play out his contract and the next Giants starter at the position is not currently on the roster.

Will they draft a new quarterback tonight? The consensus is that there are no likely franchise quarterbacks available. I’m very enthused about Malik Willis, thinking his accuracy and footwork issues are curable. I am not enthused about any other quarterback. But the Giants’ staff, obviously, does this for a living and would have different ideas. With both the 5th and 7th pick, if there was a true franchise guy, they could have traded up. That doesn’t seem to be the case.

Most mocks I’ve seen indicate Willis is likely the first quarterback off the board and a team will likely have to trade into the low teens to get him. So if you see the Giants trade down in the first round, that might be what they have in mind. Teams get crazy about quarterbacks during the draft, though, so if someone is truly sold on Willis, they’ll be watching the teams that have a need and thinking about maneuvering ahead. That’s why it seems so strange that the option news on Jones is coming out now rather than tomorrow.

Playing 3D chess here, I think this means the Giants do not want a new quarterback and might want to draw a specific team into trading up to six for a quarterback so that they get the offensive lineman they want at seven. They are willing to start Jones this season and if he suddenly breaks out, franchise him in 2023 or give him the $35-$40 million per year on a longer deal that he’d get if he does break out. It’s a gamble. But if they lose this gamble, they will draft high in 2023 and there are more and better quarterback options. Or maybe they want Baker Mayfield. It’s surprising that no one else does.

Ian Book, New Orleans’ fourth-round pick in the 2021 draft, made his professional debut at quarterback in tonight’s Monday Night game against Miami.

Not surprisingly, it didn’t go well. Book didn’t pass the Akili Line until a long catch-and-run late in the fourth quarter (56 yards to Lil’Jordan Humphrey). He ended up 12-20-135 with two interceptions. The first was a pick-six on his second career pass attempt. This essentially put the game out of reach in a 20-3 loss. This included eight sacks (the second-most a quarterback has gone down in the NFL this season). The Saints generated only 81 passing yards for the game.

The Akili Line is named for Akili Smith, the third overall pick in the 1999 draft. Smith stuck around for four seasons for Cincinnati, starting 17 games and averaging 125 passing yards in those starts (by far the lowest average in the NFL in the last 50 years for quarterbacks with more than ten starts). The Bengals went 3-14 in those games.

It’s inspired by the Mendoza Line in baseball, named for Mario Mendoza, who was a decent-fielding shortstop in the 1970s who failed to hit .200 for a season as often as not. Anyone struggling to reach a .200 batting average is said to be having trouble reaching the Mendoza Line.

Similarly, any quarterback who struggles to throw for 100 yards in a game is struggling with the Akili Line. Ironically, Smith was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates (the same team that discovered Mendoza and signed him) in the seventh round years before he played college football, but he was released for failing to get even close to .200 as a hitter in parts of three seasons in the low minors.

Book may be a fine quarterback in the making. But he’s not ready to play in the NFL and he was fourth on the depth chart going into the season, kept inactive each week as he learned in practice. However, starter Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. The two backups, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian, are in the COVID protocol this week. Drew Brees apparently considered and declined an offer to come out of retirement and play this week.

The NFL is proud of the fact that during the COVID crisis, every game on the schedule has been played. You might remember last season’s Broncos/Saints game, when the entire Bronco quarterback room was out with COVID and wide receiver Kendall Hinton started at quarterback in a 31-3 loss, completing only one pass. This spectacle helped change the roster rules a little, but when a team is suddenly, without any warning, down to its fourth quarterback on the depth chart, it’s still a spectacle.

The Broncos were 5-11 last season, and 4-6 and still fighting when they had to start Hinton. New Orleans is 7-8 now, and a win tonight would have seen them tied for the last playoff spots.

I’m not sure what you can do as a league when you have 18 weeks to play 17 games and a spike in COVID knocks more than 100 players out of games in just a few days. But I don’t think this was fair to Saints players or fans or even to Book.

Since it seems that COVID and its variants are here to stay and even evade vaccines (far more easily than Book evaded Miami pass rushers), it would be nice to see a schedule for 2022 that makes room for games to move in the event that a team can’t put a professional product on the field – whether it’s due to quarterback outages or large numbers of outages elsewhere. Either that or hope that the newer variants pose less of a risk of serious harm to otherwise young, healthy individuals – enough so that the league can consider dropping the protocol. Obviously, medical professionals need to learn more before that could be considered. Our knowledge of COVID changes every week.

If Week 10 seemed a little devoid of drama to you, you’re not wrong. Of the 15 games, only one saw a lead change in the fourth quarter. That happened when Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell converted a field goal early in the fourth quarter to tie Detroit. The rest of that game belongs in the archives of unintentional humor and viewer torture.

Seven of last week’s games ended with a three-score margin of victory or higher. Is this representative of a trend in the NFL? While the average margin of victory this season, 12.17, is above last year’s 11.04 and is the highest the league has seen since 2014, the average over the last 48 seasons is 11.70 and there are quite a few 12s in there. 2016’s 10.42 points per game is the lowest on the list.

We talk a lot about the salary cap offering closer games, but the first 24 seasons on the list, 11.72 was the average margin. The most recent 24 seasons have averaged 11.69. The salary cap helps prevent stockpiling of non-playing talent, but it didn’t completely change the game. I’m inclined to think of last week’s non-drama as a rare blip in what’s usually an entertaining schedule.

In the meantime, the last three weeks have seen some quarterback adjustment. Jalen Hurts is getting into a good rhythm in Philadelphia and Ben Roethlisberger is looking stronger (he was out with COVID for the aforementioned Lionsday comedy festival), while several quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford) have had a rough time. Trevor Siemian is not the answer in New Orleans. Nor is Taylor Heinicke in Washington, as much as I’d like to see the undrafted guy succeed. Sam Darnold, now sidelined with a shoulder injury, will likely be a very expensive backup next year.

Justin Fields has looked a little better in his last two starts. But both were losses. He ran for more than 100 yards in the 33-22 Week 8 loss to San Francisco, becoming the second quarterback to reach 100 yards in a game this season (Lamar Jackson did it early this season, and then again a couple of weeks ago).

Quarterbacks have rushed for 100 or more yards 56 times since 1998. In those games, their teams have gone 37-18-1. Interestingly, Colin Kaepernick, one of the best running quarterbacks in NFL history, is 1-3 in those games and the only player with more than two losses. But the one victory was that 183-yard playoff performance against Green Bay (I don’t include kneel-downs – the official total was 181 yards) which is the league’s all-time quarterback rushing record.

Lamar Jackson is 11-1. Michael Vick was also 11-1, and he neither started nor should be credited with the loss in that 12th game. And in another unusual bit of trivia (you won’t win your bar game with something this esoteric), Josh Allen is 1-2, and those three games were in consecutive weeks in 2018 (more esoterica – the first of those three – and the only win – isn’t official since he had 99 yards counting two game-ending kneel-downs).

Seven weeks into this first post-COVID (or neo-COVID, because it’s still around, even if it’s not affecting sports much any more) season, also the first with 17 regular-season games per team, I thought I’d look into the league quarterbacking situation.

As always, I’m using my quarterback metric, which attempts to normalize performance within a small set of years. For now, I’m using the 2020 normalized values, since there’s not enough 2021 information at this point to see where it might differ. Differences are always tiny from year-to-year.

Overall, performance is a bit down in the NFL this season. Teams are averaging 23.6 points per game, down from last season’s record 24.7. The metric is about one point per performance lower, suggesting that quarterback play is a big reason for the drop (I’ll assume this is the retirements of Philip Rivers and Drew Brees combined with the rookie struggles of an unusually large quarterback draft class).

A team-by-team list, starting with the best QB performance averages this season (an average performance from a starting QB is about 52):

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford, 63.4 average (last season 54.1 with the Lions). Stafford has the third-highest personal increase from last season and is playing at an MVP level. The Rams paid a huge price for this trade, but so far, they’re looking smart for making it.

Cincinnati: Joe Burrow, 62.0 (52.0 last season). Like about half of the quarterbacks drafted with the first overall pick, Burrow is leaping forward in his sophomore year and might be the AFC MVP so far. A pick like this transforms a franchise. The Bengals last won a playoff game on January 6, 1991, 31 seasons back. This is the longest drought in the NFL, beating out the Detroit Lions by 364 days. It looks like Detroit will take over in a couple of months.

Minnesota: Kirk Cousins, 59.5 (54.1). With Philip Rivers retired, he’s the new “really good, but can he lead you deep into the playoffs?” guy.
Dallas: Dak Prescott, 59.2 (58.2). Prescott will lead the Cowboys there sooner or later.
Arizona: Kyler Murray, 59.0 (59.9). Murray took that sophomore leap last season.
Seattle: Russell Wilson, 58.0 (53.4).
Washington: Taylor Heinicke, 57.4 (limited action last season). Heinicke, undrafted six years ago, is the only undrafted quarterback starting this season. The Football Team does not play defense.
Tampa Bay: Tom Brady, 56.7 (55.8).
Buffalo: Josh Allen, 56.7 (57.4).
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 56.6 (62.1).
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes, 56.4 (63.6). Tied for the biggest drop in the league from last season’s performance, but a loaded early schedule has a lot to do with it.
New England: Mac Jones, 55.9 (rookie). Surprisingly, the 15th overall pick (and fifth quarterback selected) has been the most effective of the rookies.
Denver: Teddy Bridgewater, 55.3 (56.8).
Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill, 55.1 (59.7).
Cleveland: Baker Mayfield, 54.8 (53.8).
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, 54.7 (53.9).
New Orleans: Jameis Winston, 54.3 (limited action last season).
New York Giants: Daniel Jones, 54.1 (45.6). After a poor sophomore season, Jones is showing signs that he might become a franchise guy.
San Francisco: Jimmy Garoppolo, 53.4 (46.3). Does it seem like losing the Super Bowl simply breaks 49ers quarterbacks? They were 5-0 in the big game until the 2012 season.
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa, 53.3 (52.9). Not sure why they’re apparently willing to trade everything because the number-five pick from last season is about what one could expect from that draft position.
Las Vegas: Derek Carr, 52.9 (55.9).
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 52.8 (53.2).
Indianapolis: Carson Wentz, 50.6 (37.8). The biggest riser this year, but he’s lucky he’s still starting after last year’s performance.
Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence, 50.5 (rookie).
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts, 49.9 (44.4). The Eagles might be asking too much from Hurts, but he’s still in there fighting.
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson, 49.9 (53.8). I’ve spent a lot of time reviewing the numbers the last couple of years because it’s so clear that Jackson does so much out there. I’ve added measures for quarterbacks who run a lot. It’s difficult to measure degree of difficulty because of its subjective nature. What would Baltimore be without Jackson? Very different. There’s never been a quarterback quite like him. And no guarantee that Baltimore could replace what he does with less option. It’s tough being a sample size of one.
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 48.3 (51.9). Seems like the end of the line for a great competitor. Who knows?
Detroit: Jared Goff, 47.3 (54.5). Sorry, Lions. I guess it was you all along.
Carolina: Sam Darnold, 46.0 (44.8). I suppose the price (second, fourth and sixth) for a recent number-three overall pick already reflects his value. But he got paid. And it looks like he’s not NFL starting material.
Houston: Davis Mills, 42.2 (rookie). If you’re determined to start a third-rounder from the most recent draft, this is what you get. Just a bad situation for the Texans. My hope is that Deshaun Watson is cleared of all charges and finds he likes Houston after all and resumes what looked like a very promising career. Reality isn’t so kind.
New York Jets: Zach Wilson, 40.0 (rookie). Reality is sometimes realistic, too. Nowhere near time to seriously worry about the pick, though.
Chicago: Justin Fields, 39.2 (rookie). This is a tougher situation. Fields has had a couple of games that could mess with his head, long-term. They have two veteran quarterbacks on the roster. I do not think the Bears are doing the right thing here.

From time to time, broadcasters talk about age in the NFL, especially as Tom Brady seeks to redefine it. I wanted to write an article discussing Brady’s accomplishments as he heads into the latter stages of his career.

Briefly, your standard NFL trivia: George Blanda last played with the 1975 Oakland Raiders and threw a handful of passes that season. He retired at age 48, the oldest to play a game in NFL history.

That paints a picture of longevity that Brady, who will turn 44 just before the 2021 season begins, probably won’t match.

Not to diminish Blanda’s accomplishments, I’ll bring a little perspective to the argument. Blanda last started a game at age 41 and last lined up for more than a handful of plays at quarterback at age 42. Oakland had signed him for his last few seasons pretty much strictly as a kicker, which he did quite well until his retirement. Blanda’s career was remarkable.

About 60 players have played into their 40s in the entire history of the NFL. About half were kickers. It has been rare for a quarterback to play effectively after about the age of 37, but a few have.

John Elway retired after winning the Super Bowl with Denver at age 38 and seven months. Peyton Manning retired after winning the Super Bowl with Denver at age 39 and ten months. Brett Favre last started with Minnesota in 2010, at age 41 and two months. At the time, he was the second-oldest quarterback ever to hold the regular starting quarterback for an NFL team.

There are six quarterbacks who have started games at age 42 or later in NFL history. On January 17 of this year, two of them started against each other in the playoffs. Drew Brees was 42 and two days old. Brady was 43 and five months at the time. Brees’ New Orleans Saints lost and he has since retired.

Doug Flutie last started a game at age 42 and two months with San Diego in 2005, four years after he was last a regular starter. Brady is now fourth on the list of oldest quarterbacks to start a game.

Warren Moon was eight days past his 44th birthday when he last started a game with Kansas City in 2000. Vinny Testaverde was 26 days past his 44th birthday when he lasted started a game with Carolina in 2007. Both had been primarily backups for at least two seasons before those starts. Brady will pass both of them the next time he starts a game.

Moon started regularly for Seattle until four days past his 42nd birthday. That made him the oldest regular starting NFL quarterback in NFL history until Brady passed him in 2019. Brees would have passed Moon for second place had the Saints beaten Brady’s Buccaneers in the divisional playoffs earlier this year.

That leaves the oldest quarterback to start an NFL game: Steve DeBerg. On October 25, 1998, as the backup with Atlanta for Chris Chandler (who took that team to the Super Bowl, where they lost in Elway’s career finale), DeBerg started a game at age 44 years and nine months. DeBerg had been retired for five years before his old coach in Denver, Dan Reeves, talked him into that one season as a backup (DeBerg had spent a good portion of his career backing up Elway).

If Brady continues to start into the 2022 season, he will be the oldest quarterback ever to start a game. You’d also have to go back to the 1920s to find a non-kicker who even played in the league at that age.

I write this to underline the backstory behind the well-known Blanda trivia question. What Brady is doing has never been done before. In fact, aside from Brady, Moon, Brees and Favre, no quarterback in NFL history has even held a regular starting role as a quarterback after turning 41.

Does this mean 44 is the new 34? I doubt it. Extreme longevity is still players like Eli Manning retiring at 38 and Philip Rivers retiring (this year) just days past his 40th birthday. That’s more consistent with NFL history and advances in training. Brady simply defies age and I would be surprised if the records he’s setting are ever seriously challenged.

This doesn’t happen in the NFL.

On Sunday, two number-one overall picks from past drafts were traded… for each other. Both are quarterbacks playing under “you’re my franchise guy” contracts. Combined, $40 million in dead cap space was added to 2021 rosters in a season where the salary cap is expected to significantly drop.

How is this possible?

Let’s look at the players involved. The Lions traded Matthew Stafford, the first pick of the 2009 draft. He will be 33 entering next season. He has a career record (74-93-1) well under .500 in a world where under .500 guarantees you’re holding a clipboard, at best. Quarterbacks are paid to win. Nevertheless, Stafford’s physical skills are quite impressive and his statistics, for a team that is usually inconsistent or worse at running the ball, reveal someone who is a little above average for an NFL starter.

After another season of Lions failure and another fired head coach, Stafford, who has never won a playoff game, was reportedly seeking a new home.

The Rams traded Jared Goff, the first pick of the 2016 draft. He will be 26 entering next season. His career record is very good (45-30), and he has even played in a Super Bowl (though the Patriots solved him quite effectively in that game). He did not play that well down the stretch this season, broke his thumb in week 16, came back two weeks later, despite playing with pins in his thumb, to relieve injured replacement John Wolford and won a wild card game. The Rams then lost in Green Bay a week later.

Goff was rumored to be out of favor in Los Angeles.

Statistically, both quarterbacks are good. Aside from the record, which depends on team situations, I look at interception percentage and yards per dropback when first evaluating performance. Goff is at 2.2% interceptions and 6.72 yards for his career. Stafford, 2.3% and 6.49 yards. The average for the top 50 winning quarterbacks in modern NFL history is 3.1% and 6.65 yards. Both quarterbacks have earned starting roles.

With Stafford, you see the potential for improvement in a better situation. Goff has played his entire career under an ideal situation. Analysts seem to agree that Goff is not developing as he should and Stafford is still elite.

In the NFL, the money you receive after your first contract expires generally demonstrates your perceived value. Goff signed a contract worth $33.5 million per year before the 2019 season started. Stafford signed a contract worth $27 million per year before the 2017 season started. Both were elite contracts at the time.

I can’t say what changed between then and now. Goff did not have a great 2019 season and while he improved a bit this season, the key numbers are still a bit low. My quarterback metric, which correlates quarterback stats with winning in the NFL, shows that both are solidly above average and that Goff’s 2020 season was pretty good despite a large drop in yards per attempt.

At any rate, the Rams are also giving up first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 (they already traded away this year’s) and a third-round pick this year. This suggests Goff is being valued as a premium backup or stopgap starter. That could be because he objectively is playing at that level or the Rams, initiating trades, are signalling to the rest of the league that his value, internally, is near zero.

I don’t agree with this assessment. Goff has always had accuracy issues when pressured, but he protects the ball well and is an important piece of what has made the Rams a decent team the last few years. While Stafford has this unique position in the NFL of being a sub-.500 quarterback who performs very well and is perceived as elite, I don’t know that he’s all that much better than Goff. He also benefited from having one of the greatest talents in NFL history sharing his huddle – Calvin Johnson – for much of his career.

So, what happened? What’s obvious is Rams management gave up on Goff. They committed to finding a new quarterback for 2021. They got one for two years – the first at an extraordinary cost when you consider the dead cap space added from Goff’s contract. They are about $35 million over what the cap is expected to be in 2021 and they’re essentially sitting out the draft. Somehow, they’ll figure out how to fit under the cap, but it will be a challenge to do so without losing any key pieces.

Franchise quarterbacks generally spend most, if not all, of their productive careers with the team that drafted them. Sometimes, like with Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady (and Brett Favre with the team that traded for him not that long after he was drafted), they join a new team at the end of a long career. They rarely, if ever, switch teams once they’re established in their prime.

That may be changing. Deshaun Watson just received his “you’re my franchise guy” contract and is demanding a trade. If a better-than-average 33-year-old can garner two firsts and a third, what is the value of a 26-year-old quarterback who isn’t that far from MVP level? But the implied corollary is that contracts are less binding and any guy on your team is only as valuable as what he’s currently paid. No easy re-signings, no worries about a cap algorithm that favors long-term player retention (spreading bonuses to future years). If this trend continues, teams will start focusing more on immediate salaries and less on big bonuses. In the short term, with the cap dropping so much, there will be many teams out there who won’t be able to pay more than minimum salaries for many positions – even starting positions.

Still, Rams management, through its actions, signaled a team that believed it could win championships if only it had a better quarterback. Self-fulfilling prophecy, or reality? Whenever stakes are so high, with coaches and management fired for winning less than it should, perception is paramount. The NFL is set up to reward those who convince the rest of us that they alone can orchestrate a championship.

In the film industry, with movies constructed under budget constraints, a film-maker who creates a unique vision can be called an Auteur. A coveted moniker. But what separates true artistic genius from some Poseur who decides tripods are superfluous and coherent scripts are unnecessary? I don’t know what will happen with the Rams and Stafford. This trade feels very forced, like someone wanting to make a name, rather than a solid team-building strategy. The Rams have serious cap issues and throw away first-round picks like they believe the draft is no deeper than the NBA’s version.

On the flip side, the Lions get to start Dan Campbell’s reign with extra first-round picks and if they can absorb the 2021 cap hit from this deal (no easy task, but they’re in far better shape than the Rams), either they have a decent young franchise quarterback to resign or they can use one of those extra picks to draft one. They’re in building mode, Stafford wanted out, and the Rams just gave them a late Christmas.

Over the years, I’ve focused a lot of my original statistical analysis on the quarterback position. The idea behind this is the more I understand about the most complex job in professional sports, the more I understand about sports. Most of this analysis isn’t ever part of a game. It’s more like a hobby. If I gain an insight that helps my work, that’s great.

I’ve put together a fairly extensive spreadsheet of quarterback performance going back to 1974 (insert oft-repeated explanation about NFL passing rules changes here). It was a different game before the rules changes. None of the timing routes or combination routes that have defined modern NFL offenses would have been possible under the old rules.

Still, the game constantly changes. Back in the late ’70s, the league’s interception rate was around 5.2%. Then 4.2% in the ’80s, 3.4% in the ’90s, 3.2% in the ’00s and 2.6% in the ’10s. Completion percentage has risen in a similar manner and yards per catch has dropped.

The most interesting question I’d like to answer is what makes an NFL quarterback? I’ve written a lot about this as well, but in 1998, the year I left the corporate megalith world and began Front Office Football, there was a critical question for Bill Polian, as General Manager of the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were drafting first overall and needed a quarterback. Two quarterbacks were scouted as being worthy of a number-one pick.

Polian picked correctly, and he’s in the NFL Hall of Fame. Much has been written about Polian’s decision, and I think it would be a fantastic game to recreate that process and have people run drafts and make similar decisions. The problem there is that while we know the answer to Polian’s question, without any trace of doubt, we don’t know exactly what, in all the information he had available, truly determined the outcome.

In order to create a simulation, you have to model something. The more you incorporate into your model, the more engrossing the simulation. But that means you have to make more decisions about what you’re modeling. Some random chance is necessary – you can’t have a sports simulation without some elements of randomness. But somewhere in the data you present to GMs is a piece of information that Polian would see and would lead him to the correct decision.

And once you know, you know. The uncertainty of knowing whether a certain player fails is no longer a mystery. You see attribute X on a rookie’s card, and you know that there’s a high probability he will never develop into a good player. So I try to model that part of the decision process as little as possible. There’s no “well, he’s checking his phone and wearing headphones instead of interacting with his teammates” rating. Scouting error is higher for draftees and there’s a known variable, volatility, which, when triggered, forces a huge change in a player’s ratings. It sure doesn’t feel great (or realistic) when your top pick suddenly gets the volatility drop, but the alternative is a map of Polian’s black box which could never be unseen once revealed.

A while back, I created my own quarterback rating system. I took the major statistical categories, and determined how much they correlated with “winning” football games. This varies a bit from year to year. Since the ultimate intent of this data is to study career paths, I wanted a data set that’s normalized from year to year. This is unlike the oft-published quarterback rating, which has risen considerably as offensive strategies improve.

The system I came up with seemed pretty good, but it doesn’t offer enough credit for the quarterbacks who are more of a threat to run the ball. Now part of that effect takes care of itself. If defenses have to keep a linebacker or a nickel in a short zone as a “spy” in order to protect against a long quarterback run, presumably receivers will have an easier time getting open. But that doesn’t take into account the rushing yardage the quarterback gains, which may be more valuable because quarterback-rushers have a much higher yardage per carry than running backs. Just the nature of these plays.

I’ve spent a lot of trial-and-error time determining what stats correlate best to winning. I found that quarterback rushing yardage was enough of a positive to warrant breaking out on its own. I also hadn’t built sack numbers into the system, and getting sacked is also pretty bad for winning percentage.

I needed to improve my quarterback database, so I decided to take sack and quarterback running numbers back to 1998. I also tried to remove plays where the quarterback takes a knee at the end of a half, since that muddies the quarterback rushing picture. I also removed quarterback spikes from passing attempts.

From there, I put together a list of quarterbacks who have made about 50 or more starts since 1998, adding in top draft picks since 1998 and quarterbacks of significance who were still active in 1998, but had fewer games played later. I ended up with a list of 109 quarterbacks and I included their full careers, modifying the formula to remove fumbles from the rating before 1994 (it’s hard to find consistent fumble data before then).

Each performance is then normalized based on the correlations for that season. I use rolling seven-year averages to smooth out the correlations, because there are wide year-to-year swings. These allow the rating to change gradually, on the hypothesis that each season is one trial – one that could be skewed to one side of the expected result distribution – on an unknowable league mean.

As it turns out, Peyton Manning is ranked #1 of 109 in average quarterback rating over his career and Ryan Leaf is ranked #109. Polian not only made a great decision; it might objectively be the best decision ever made in sports drafting. Imagine – pick correctly and you get the best quarterback of his generation. Pick wrong, and you not only waste the pick, but you’re starting the worst quarterback of his generation for a couple of years.

Another reason I wanted to make sure I was more effectively crediting quarterbacks who run the ball a lot was that I wanted to separate running quarterbacks from those who rarely run the ball and see what I could learn. So I divided the 109 quarterbacks into quintiles based on the percentage of plays they either run the ball or get sacked, or throw the ball.

I found that the rating was almost flat through the top three quintiles – those who ran/were sacked the most. In fact, the top quintile saw a bit of an improvement over the next two. But the fourth quintile was considerably higher than the first and the fifth quintile (those who run/were sacked the least) a huge improvement over those numbers. This was reflected in winning percentages as well.

Keeping in mind that there are only about 22 quarterbacks in each quintile, and Manning and Tom Brady are in that fifth quintile, that might not mean all that much.

I noticed two other important pieces of data. First, quarterbacks in the first quintile reached their performance peaks after less than two years of starting. That’s about a year ahead of every other group. And second, quarterbacks in the first quintile had the shortest careers on average – about seven years. That rises to eight for the second and third quintiles, eleven for the fourth and twelve years for the fifth.

Starting is about opportunity and opportunity comes from winning. With small samples, just a couple of players can make a difference. It doesn’t mean that running quarterbacks can’t win. The first quintile includes Hall of Famer Steve Young, and Russell Wilson seems to be having a very similar career (he’ll be in Canton, I have no doubt). Of today’s young stars, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson are in the first quintile – Watson and Patrick Mahomes (third quintile) have average ratings already at a Hall of Fame level.

Interestingly enough, college performances from the first quintile were by far the best in terms of college quarterback rating. College defenses simply can’t handle a fast quarterback with a good arm who is always a threat to run the ball. The rest of the group had similar college performances, but the fifth quintile included quarterbacks who had a lot more experience in college throwing the ball. This group threw about 25% more passes than the other four quintiles, on average, even though Brady himself was rather inexperienced coming out of college.

My takeaway? It’s hard to find a good quarterback in the NFL, so you have to take the best one when you need one. A good runner is a bonus at the position, and they tend to develop faster but they have shorter careers. As quarterbacks develop, if they need to stay in the pocket, they need to learn to get the ball out quickly. You’ll find all five quintiles represented among the twelve of the 109 quarterbacks studied who are either in the Hall of Fame or definitely Canton-bound.

However, five of the twelve are in the fifth quintile, as are the next three most likely to receive serious consideration. Ideally, if you want your number-one draft pick to develop into a 16-year franchise guy, you want someone who makes quick decisions and not end plays with the ball in his hands.